We look at some online weather headlines and see how they’re telling the weather forecast.
With a mixed forecast for the next few days and some warmer weather likely for some next week, there’s plenty for online headlines to discuss.
Below, we see how recent online headlines reflect the reality of the weather forecast.
How much rain?
“UK weather maps show 250-mile rain bomb set to soak Brits with torrential downpours,” says one headline.
What our forecast says: Isolated showers are likely on Thursday in some places in what will be a largely dry day. Friday will see the arrival of a front of rain to the west, bringing some heavy rain initially to Northern Ireland and then some western areas of the UK later on and into Saturday as it weakens. ‘Rain bomb’ is not a term recognised by professional weather forecasters and, although there’s a chance of a rain warning, it’s a relatively typical weather outlook for the time of year.
It’s important to remember that maps are just one tool that meteorologists use to help create a forecast, with a range of data, knowledge and expertise utilised to help create the weather outlook.
“Met Office 'changeable' weather warning amid heavy rain across UK,” says another online headline.
What our forecast says: Changeable is an accurate description of the current outlook. At the time of writing there is no weather warning issued by the Met Office, though there is a chance of a warning for the wet weather expected across Northern Ireland on Friday. Stay up to date with the latest forecast for up-to-date information on any warnings.
“Changeable weather across UK forecast after unusually warm, dry spell,” is a more balanced headline online.
What our forecast says: Changeable weather is in the forecast in the coming days, with more persistent rain arriving in the west on Friday followed by patchier rain or showers more widely on Saturday and then a gradually drier picture next week. April has been relatively warm and dry for much of the UK so far, though there is still a week to go before the full data comes in. However, some places, including Northern Ireland and parts of the southwest, have been wetter than average so far.
Heatwave for the UK?
“Heatwave horror as Britain forecast mega 22°C and will be hotter than Ibiza,” is a more alarming headline online.
What our forecast says: Temperatures are likely to rise early next week, initially in the south and could well be into the low 20s in the south of the UK. This is relatively typical for a warm spell in April and doesn’t constitute a heatwave, which requires specific thresholds to be met or exceeded over a three-day period. In any case, the lowest threshold for a heatwave in some parts of the UK is 25°C, beyond the 22°C in the headline.
“UK weather maps turn red as Brits to be hit with 24°C heat in May scorcher,” says another online headline.
What our forecast says: This headline goes a step further in predicting specific temperatures in the second half of next week. While above average temperatures are most likely, especially for those in the south and east, it’s too early for a specific and definitive temperature forecast, as only small meteorological changes can influence the temperatures observed in the second half of next week.
Or even snow?
“Exact date Atlantic storm to batter UK with weather maps turning snowy purple,” says one headline, in a late-spring mention of snow.
What our forecast says: This story looks almost two weeks away and uses a single model run to determine the chances of snow over northern Scotland. Professional forecasts at this range include information from hundreds of models runs, revealing the extent of the uncertainty in the conditions on any specific date. It’s not possible to give a specific forecast for a nominated day over two weeks away, though snow in Scotland, particularly for the mountains, does happen on occasion in May.
Find out more about ‘exact date’ headlines and where they come from.
Find out more about how snow is forecast in the UK.
Want to check the weather information you read online? Find our quick guide to assessing the forecast in online news.
If you want detailed analysis on long-range weather forecasts, then explore the Met Office YouTube, which includes both short-range forecasts as well as in-depth discussion on the meteorological outlook.
