UK weather

Headline:

A cloudy and chilly bonfire night.

Today:

Generally cloudy, though the far north and northwest should see some sunshine once any fog patches clear. A few showers across northern England and Scotland, while showers in the far southwest ease. Winds easing, though staying chilly in the south.

Tonight:

Generally cloudy overnight, though clearer skies in northwest Scotland and Northern Ireland bring a risk of fog and frost. Showers persist in northern areas, with rain reaching the far southwest.

Friday:

Variable cloud and light easterly winds for most. A few showers affect eastern and northern coasts, while the far southwest risks heavier showers. Patchy fog overnight. Temperatures near average overall.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Little change through the weekend with cloud, sunshine and isolated showers. Patchy fog at times. Monday brings an increasing risk of rain in the south, with brighter spells further north.

High pressure begins to migrate away to the east allowing frontal systems to attempt to progress into the UK from the southwest, although exactly how much progress into the UK this makes is uncertain. However there is a greater chance that at least the southern half of the UK will see a change to milder and wetter conditions, at least for a time, while the north is more likely to remain drier. Toward the end of next week we may start to see some colder conditions spread from the north to much of, if not all of the UK, but while the nature of this colder outbreak is very uncertain , it could bring some wintry showers to the northern UK briefly, with the south trending drier once again.

During the second half of November, there is an increasing chance of changeable or more unsettled conditions developing, with spells of rain and the potential for strong winds at times. The extent and location of the wettest and windiest weather is very uncertain at this range, with northern and western areas generally most favoured, but there is a chance the wettest conditions could become more focussed across southern parts for a time. Towards the end of November, whilst confidence is very low in the overall weather patterns, there may be a tendency for the tracks of Atlantic lows to shift farther south. Temperatures are likely to be near or above average for much of the period, although colder interludes remain possible, perhaps more especially later in the period.