A look back on Storm Éowyn

Storm Éowyn was the UK’s most powerful windstorm for over a decade, bringing red warnings, severe impacts and, tragically, fatalities.

According to Met Office analysis of the storm, it was also the most significant windstorm for Northern Ireland since the Boxing Day Storm of 1998.

A 100mph gust was recorded at Drumalbin, while 15 UK stations with more than ten years of history recorded their own respective highest January wind gust. Roads were closed, thousands were without power, ferries and trains were cancelled and sadly lives were lost as impacts were felt for many as part of the multi-hazard event, with strong winds, rain and snow for some.

How the forecast developed

The Met Office’s YouTube forecast Ten Day Trend on 15 January first highlighted the possibility of wet and windy weather in the second half of the week commencing 20 January, which obviously came to pass.

As is usually the case, forecast confidence increased closer to the time, which resulted in further Met Office communications, the naming of the system and ultimately a plethora of warnings, including red warnings.

The first warnings for the system were issued on 20 January, before it had even formed as a distinct system out in the Atlantic. As confidence of impacts increased, Storm Éowyn was given its name on 21 January, still before the system had formed, but modelling suggested an impactful and damaging period of weather on the way.

Senior Presenter and Meteorologist, Alex Deakin, said: “Thanks to developments and innovation in forecasting, we can now fairly regularly predict these impactful weather systems before they even form, thousands of miles away from the UK. While the atmosphere is inherently chaotic in nature, our complex forecasting models that we have been developing for decades are now so advanced we're able to communicate incoming impactful weather well in advance, helping people, businesses and responders prepare and stay safe."

While developing under the influence of a powerful jet stream, the system underwent a process referred to as ‘explosive cyclogenesis’, which is when the pressure of the storm rapidly deepens over a 24-hour period.

While the depth of the low pressure isn’t the only indicator of storm strength, the lowest pressure recorded for Storm Éowyn was 941.9hPa on the Isle of Tiree, which was the lowest value since storm naming was introduced in 2015 and the lowest depth of pressure in the UK since 24 December 2013.

As the deep low pressure crossed the Republic of Ireland, satellite imagery on the Friday morning suggested that a sting jet developed close to where a 114mph wind gust was recorded on the West coast of Ireland. A sting jet is a small area of very intense winds that can sometimes form in powerful weather systems. Relative to the size of the storm, the sting jet is narrow, often 30 miles across, and only lasts 3 to 4 hours. The ‘Great Storm’ of 1987 is another example where a sting jet formed and caused significant damage within a wider storm system.

Intense interest in Storm Éowyn’s forecast

As warnings were refined, upgraded and communicated in the days preceding Éowyn, interest in the forecast increased for the media and public. With Met Office warnings highlighting the possibility of gusts peaking around 100mph, there was plenty of concern.

The media demonstrated their vital role in reporting severe weather events with over 23,000 mentions of the Met Office from when the storm was named (21 January) to the day after impact (25 January).

Met Office website saw over 14million page views over 21-25 January, with over 2million views of the weather warnings page itself.

The Met Office’s social media channels also proved to be popular, with over 14million impressions over the same period and interactions across YouTube, X, WhatsApp, Threads, BlueSky, Facebook, TikTok and Instagram.

Met Office’s YouTube channel, which features exclusive in-depth and long-range forecasts, had 2.4million views in the week, which was more than three times as many as the previous week. 23 January saw the peak interest on YouTube, with the channel’s most-viewed day since it was launched and over 900,000 views.

In addition to public-facing communications, the Met Office was also delivering briefings with first responders, government and key industries to help with preparations and recovery.

Met Office Services Director Simon Brown, who oversees the organisation’s National Severe Weather Warning Service, as well as the observations network and hazard monitoring, said: “The statistics lay bare what an impactful and damaging system Storm Éowyn became, with a gust of 100mph recorded at Drumalbin and a significant amount of damage and destruction.

“The combination of the Met Office working alongside partners to get vital information out around this storm was crucial and I pay compliments to the government and multi-agency response that helped give responders and the public as much forewarning as possible to take precautions and minimise impacts.

“Our thoughts go out to all those who have been affected by Storm Éowyn. It’s clear this system had the potential to be even more destructive, which serves as a poignant reminder of the impacts severe weather can have in the UK, including, sadly, the risk to life.”

Weather warnings exist to help to mitigate impacts from severe weather events. While formal reviews on Storm Éowyn haven’t yet taken place, there are signs that people took precautions ahead of the dangerous conditions.

Motoring experts RAC reported a significant reduction in breakdown volumes in Northern Ireland, Scotland and northern England when Storm Éowyn arrived on 24 January.

RAC Senior Policy Officer Rod Dennis said: “We saw a marked reduction in breakdowns in the areas most affected by Storm Éowyn, which suggests many drivers heeded the warnings and decided not to take to the roads. By doing so, drivers were keeping themselves safe, and avoiding any chance of breaking down and needing to call out our patrols in the dangerous conditions.”