Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Significant space weather activity is not expected with widespread aurora sightings unlikely. A connection to a high speed stream early on the 14 Jan may cause aurora sightings to be possible from Northern Scotland and similar latitudes, where skies are sufficiently clear.
Southern Hemisphere
Significant space weather activity is not expected with widespread aurora sightings unlikely. A connection to a high speed stream early on the 14 Jan may cause aurora sightings to be possible from the South Island of New Zealand and similar latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated Moderate class flares. Slight chance of G1-G2/Minor-Moderate Geomagnetic Storms early Day 1 (13 Jan).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low during the last 24 hours with only occasional Common-class flares.
There are nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. A bipolar region in the northwest remains the largest and most magnetically complex group, but with further slight decay evident among the intermediate spots. Another bipolar region around centre disc is located in the northeast, remains a simple, mature region. Most of the other regions remain small and simple with limited overall change. However, a single large spot is now rotating into view around the northeast limb.
No Earth-bound CME's (coronal mass ejections) were observed during this period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have slowly declined through the period from 440km/s to 390km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was largely weak, with the north-south component, also weakly variable. Geomagnetic activity was mainly Quiet (Kp 1-2), with an isolated Unsettled (Kp 3) interval 11/1500-1800UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background levels.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Generally Low, with a chance of isolated Moderate flares and a very slight chance of isolated Strong flares, mainly due to the moderately large sunspot region located in the northwest disc or any spots that rotate over the eastern limb later in the period.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds are now at background levels were they are likely to remain during Day 1 (13 Jan). There is a slight chance of a CME arrival early on Day 1, but this is highly uncertain due to coronagraph imagery gaps at the time. Fast winds from a coronal hole just west of centre disc are anticipated to bring some minor enhancement from early Day 2 (14 Jan).
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3) on Day 1 (13 Jan), but with a slight chance of G1 to G2 Minor/Moderate Storms should any CME influence be forthcoming (very low confidence). On Day 2 (14 Jan) activity is expected to increase to Unsettled to Active (Kp3-4) levels, following the onset of the fast winds from the aforementioned coronal hole, with a slight chance of peak G1/Minor Storm conditions. Activity is then expected to return to Quiet to Unsettled levels from Day 3 (15 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is expected to remain at background levels, with only a slight chance of rising in response to any notable flares.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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