Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Aurora may see some limited enhancement through the period, due to fast solar wind enhancements. This could bring some brief periods of visibility to the far north of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Aurora may see some limited enhancement through the period, due to fast solar wind enhancements. This could bring some brief periods of visibility to the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of isolated G1 Minor Storms. Chance of isolated Moderate class flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with a Moderate-class flare peaking at 08/2222 UTC from the largest spot on the disc, in the southwest. Another large spot in the southwest has shown some decay in the last 24 hours, meanwhile a small new region in the northwest has shown some development. The rest of the regions are small and magnetically simple.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind showed fluctuating fast winds, due to coronal hole fast wind influences. Wind speeds were slightly elevated to elevated, varying between 450-590 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was Weak to Moderate. The north-south component was also Weak to Moderate, mainly in the negative (southward) direction. Geomagnetic activity was Unsettled to G1/Minor Storm (Kp3-5).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is near Background. No Solar Radiation Storms were observed
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate solar activity is forecast with a chance of further isolated Moderate flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast currently. Enhancements are expected through the period due to the Earth moving into the fast solar winds from a number of coronal holes on the Earth-facing disc. These are likely to bring Slightly Elevated to Elevated winds throughout, with a chance of peak Strong winds. Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet to Active with a chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals, this risk easing later in the period.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (High energy protons) is expected to be at Background, with only a slight chance of enhancement given the occurrence of any notable flares.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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