Space Weather

Space Weather

Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a  variety of effects.

Image courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams

Space weather notifications

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Aurora forecasts

Northern Hemisphere

Activity has now reduced close to background levels with the corresponding chance of visible aurora confined to higher latitudes, mostly to the north of the UK mainland. Little change is currently forecast in the next few days.

Southern Hemisphere

Activity has now reduced close to background levels with the corresponding chance of visible aurora confined to higher latitudes. Little change is currently forecast in the next few days.

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Forecast overview

Space Weather Forecast Headline: Further Minor/Moderate radio blackouts (R1/R2) expected.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Moderate with a Moderate-class flare from the large region in the southwest quadrant peaking at 28/0629 UTC. Five sunspot regions feature on the visible disc. The large region in the southwest quadrant (AR3615) is the most magnetically complex group, but it is becoming more difficult to assess as it approaches the limb. The remaining regions are comparatively simple and smaller, with little change. 

No significant Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed on available imagery over the last 24 hours.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind at L1 measured by ACE and DSCOVR started at elevated levels (around 530km/s) following the weekend CME that arrived on the 24th March, with a steady decline to slightly elevated levelsaround 430km/s at time of writing. The magnetic field (IMF) was at weak levels, with the important north-south component fluctuating weakly between positive and negative. The net result of the above solar wind measures was Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation was below the S1/Minor storm threshold.

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: Moderate solar activity is expected to continue, with further Moderate-class flares expected primarily from the large sunspot region located in the southwestern quadrant of the visible disc, and a chance of an isolated Strong-class flare.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity:  A coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the strong flare on the 23rd March arrived at L1 at 24/1410UTC. There are no newer significant Earth-directed CMEs currently in the forecast. Solar winds will decline towards background levels and geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation is continuing to decline from recent enhancement. A continued slow decline is expected in the absence of further significant flare activity.

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Solar imagery

SDO AIA-193

This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.

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SDO AIA-304

This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.

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