Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Some slight enhancement is possible late on 02 Dec or early 03 Dec, should a coronal mass ejection (CME) that left the Sun on 27 Nov give a glancing blow. This is low confidence however and may be further complicated by weak coronal hole influence.
Southern Hemisphere
Some slight enhancement is possible on 02 Dec or early 03 Dec, should a CME that left the Sun on 27 Nov give a glancing blow. This is low confidence however and further complicated by potential coronal hole influence.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate Activity. Slight potential for a G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm interval Day 3 or Day 4.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low during the past 24 hours, with only a high-level Common-class flare observed at 30/0906 UTC originating from the two largest and most complex sunspot regions located in the southwest quadrant. Although these regions have been largely inactive. A sunspot region located near the east limb may be one or two separate regions. The remaining regions are generally smaller and simpler, with no significant growth or decay observed.
No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the past 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have been slightly elevated to background, ranging between 360 and 420km/s. Total magnetic field strength has been moderate throughout. The north-south component Bz, has varied between negative (southward) and positive (northward) orientation, although has recently remained steady and mostly positive (northward) since 30/0400 UTC. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with a provisionally G1/Minor Storm (Kp5) observed at 29/0000-0300UTC, possibly due to a weak transient CME feature, although the source of this is currently unknown.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low to Moderate activity is expected with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares. There is a very slight chance of isolated Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: A coronal mass ejection (CME) seen leaving the Sun on 27 Nov is forecast to arrive on Day 3 (02 Dec), or possibly Day 4 (03 Dec). This CME is forecast to either miss or glance the Earth, giving limited impacts. Solar winds are expected to remain at, or close to, slow-ambient levels throughout with coronal hole influence on Day 3 expected to be minimal.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 1-3), although there is a chance of the glancing blow CME arrival producing Active (Kp 4) intervals, possibly peaking at G1/Minor Geomagnetic Storm (Kp 5) levels although this is considered a low likelihood.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at background levels with only a slight chance of solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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