Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is likely to remain near background through the period, with a slight chance of some enhancement from 14 Dec. Although any visibility of the aurora is expected to remain limited to the highest geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
The aurora oval is likely to remain near background through the period, with a slight chance of some enhancement from 14 Dec. Although any visibility of the aurora is expected to remain limited to the highest geomagnetic latitudes. Any visibility will also be limited by the short hours of darkness.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Low to Moderate Solar Activity
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Moderate with three Moderate class flares observed. The peak flare was from a recently departed region over the southwestern limb. There are currently four active regions on the disc, with a region in the northeast now the largest after showing development in the last 24-48 hours and is the most magnetically complex. A region in the southeast of the disc, gave several Moderate class flares as it rotated around the southeast limb. However, this remains a small and relatively simple region in recent imagery, although it is proving difficult to analyse in its current location. The other region of note which is now moving across into the southwest disc, has shown some consolidation of its smaller spots into a few larger ones.
No Earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME's) were observed although a number have been analysed as missing.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Slow solar wind with speeds around 360-380km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak, with the north-south component (Bz) often fluctuating but becoming mainly southwards. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet (Kp 1-2).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background, with no solar radiation storms observed.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is likely with isolated Moderate class flares and a very slight chance of Strong class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth directed CMEs. Mainly background winds are expected. The next main enhancement to the solar wind is likely to be on Day 3 (14 Dec) and into Day 4 (15 Dec) from the onset of the fast winds from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be Quiet with a chance of isolated Unsettled intervals. This increasing to give Unsettled to Active, with a slight chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals on Days 3-4 (14-15 Dec) if any enhancement occurs.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at background, with only a very slight chance of solar radiation storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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