Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to become active later on Saturday evening with possible sightings along the northern horizon of Scotland and smilar latitudes, where skies are clear. However, short hours of darkness at this time of year will limit viewing opportunities. The activity should wane quickly on Sunday and Monday.
Southern Hemisphere
The auroral oval is likely to become active later on Saturday evening with possible sightings along the southern horizon of New Zealand and Tasmania, where skies are clear. However, short hours of darkness at this time of year will limit viewing opportunities. The activity should wane quickly on Sunday and Monday.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance of Moderate-class flares throughout. Chance of G1/Minor Storm intervals Day 1 (30 Jun).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity has been Low, with multiple low-level Common-class flares. There are currently sixteen regions on the disc, most of which are small and simple. The largest regions are on the southwest quadrant and on the eastern central part. A relatively new region has continued to rotate into view around the eastern limb, and has been the most active region of the period. It appears to be a large and perhaps complex region, and will continue to be monitored.
A large filament (raised arc of plasma) was observed lifting off from the Suns surface around 29/1530 UTC, with a subsequent Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) also observed in coronagraph imagery. An initial assessment suggests this could give Earth a glancing blow early on Day 4 (03 Jul), but further imagery is awaited for a complete analysis.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds have declined since the arrival of a CME on 28 Jun. The solar wind speed has remained slightly elevated, recently settling around 400-430 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has been moderate to weak. The important north-south component has been generally quite variable, but has seen some moderate southward deflections at times. Geomagnetic activity has been Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) has remained at background levels with no solar radiation storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Low activity is expected with a chance of isolated Moderate-class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Effects of the CME arrival on 28 Jun have continued to wane. There remains the possibility for further glancing CME arrivals on Day 1 (30 Jun), however confidence is low with uncertainties in timing and positioning of these. A large filament liftoff and subsequent CME were observed in imagery from around 29/1530 UTC. An initial assessment of this CME suggests a glancing blow early on Day 4 (03 Jul), with the bulk of the ejecta expected to pass below Earths orbit. Further imagery is awaited for a more thorough analysis to take place.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be generally Quiet to Unsettled (Kp1-3), with a chance of Active to G1/Minor storm intervals (Kp4-5) on Day 1 (30 Jun) should the expected glancing CME blow materialise, however confidence remains low. Conditions are then expected to become largely Quiet from Day 2 (01 Jul) onwards, with perhaps another enhancement into Day 4 (03 Jul) with another CME glance.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is most likely to remain at background levels, but with a very slight chance of exceeding the S1/Minor Storm threshold should any notable flares occur from the numerous sunspots that currently occupy the visible disc.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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