Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Periods of enhanced aurora are possible due to ongoing fast solar winds, most likely on Thursday night or early Friday morning (UTC). This bringing a chance of visible aurora to northern parts of Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Periods of enhanced aurora are possible due to ongoing fast solar winds, most likely on Thursday night or early Friday morning (UTC). This bringing a chance of visible aurora to southern parts of New Zealand's south island and other similar geomagnetic latitudes under clear skies.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Chance G1 Minor Storms, mainly day 1-2 (13-14 Feb) due to the transition into faster solar winds.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low with occasional Common-class flares, the largest of which was from a spotless region in the northeast. The are seven sunspot regions on the disc, however these are all magnetically simple and relatively small. The main growth was in a sunspot region just west of the south-centre disc, developing a mature leader and trailer spot, however this has remained inactive.
No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed from available imagery.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Connection to fast solar winds gradually eased. Solar wind speeds have been elevated at between 500-570km/s, before easing to be slightly elevated at 450-500km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength was weak with its north-south component also weak and variable in direction, but slightly favouring negative (southwards-directed) conditions. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp2-3) with one interval of Active (Kp4) at 12/0300-0600 UTC.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was at background throughout with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate to Low activity expected with a chance of further Moderate class flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no Earth-directed CMEs. Current fast winds, are expected to become further enhanced later day 1 and into day 2 (13-14 Feb), reaching Elevated to Strong speeds. These winds are likely to continue day 3-4 (15-16 Feb). Mainly Unsettled to Active geomagnetic activity with slight chance of G1 Minor Storm intervals, but likely becoming Active with a chance of G1 Minor Storms ahead of the onset of the Elevated to Strong winds later day 1 or day 2 (13-14 Feb).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is forecast to remain at background throughout with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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