Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
Space weather notifications
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Significant geomagnetic activity is not expected, with the aurora likely limited to normal background visibility levels.
Southern Hemisphere
Significant geomagnetic activity is not expected, with the aurora likely limited to normal background visibility levels.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate class flares likely with a slight chance of X-class (Strong) flares.
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Low, with a peak flare at 20/1315 UTC from AR3968. AR3961 remains the largest sunspot group. A growth trend is evident, yet flare activity remains largely muted, however, the magnetic configuration of the sunspot is complex. AR3964 and AR3959, are both moderately sized spots in the northeast, neither of which have shown any significant change in recent hours. Confidence in the magnetic configuration of AR3968 is low, given increased foreshortening as it approaches the western horizon. All remaining spots are small and have shown little change.
No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections have been observed, though a filament eruption from the SE around 20/1954UTC is under review.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing fast winds from a coronal hole were observed. Solar wind speed increased from slightly elevated to become strong, reaching 600-650km/s by the end of the period. Interplanetary Magnetic field, Bt, was Weak to Moderate with the north-south component also Weak to Moderate, with no single orientation (direction) favoured. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Active (Kp2-4).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) persisted at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: Moderate activity is forecast, with isolated Moderate-class flares likely. There is a slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There are no coronal mass ejection arrivals expected at Earth, however a glancing impact from the coronal mass ejection early on 18 Jan cannot be completely ruled out early day 1 (21 Jan). Otherwise, current strong fast winds from CH09/- are expected to continue before gradually easing, likely becoming near background by the end of day 3 (23 Jan). Mainly Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity is expected, with a chance of Active intervals day 1 (21 Jan).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) is expected to persist at Background with no Solar Radiation Storms occurring. However, there is a slight chance of this rising in response to any significant flares that occur.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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