Space Weather
Space Weather
Space weather describes changing environmental conditions in near-Earth space. Magnetic fields, radiation, particles and matter, which have been ejected from the Sun, can interact with the Earth’s upper atmosphere and surrounding magnetic field to produce a variety of effects.
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Aurora forecasts
Northern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at background levels during 22 February. However, possible weak glancing Coronal Mass Ejections on the 23-24 February may lead to slight enhancements to geomagnetic activity. Aurora could be visible at high latitudes, with a chance of reaching northern Scotland and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
Southern Hemisphere
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at background levels during 22 February. However, possible weak glancing Coronal Mass Ejections on the 23-24 February may lead to slight enhancements to geomagnetic activity. Aurora could be visible at high latitudes, with a chance of reaching the far south of New Zealand and similar geomagnetic latitudes.
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Forecast overview
Space Weather Forecast Headline: Moderate flares likely. Possible glancing CMEs Days 2-3 (23-24 Feb).
Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours
Solar Activity: Solar activity was Moderate following two Moderate flares from a developing region near north centre disc, with the peak flare at 21/1215 UTC.
There are currently nine sunspot regions on the visible disc. The most notable regions are now at south centre disc and approaching north centre disc. The region in the south continues to show spot development and magnetic complexity. The region in the north has developed rapidly in the last 24 hours, with magnetic complexity also developing. A further region in the southwest remains of interest, but despite its length it is straightforward magnetically, and currently appears stable. The other regions on the disc are smaller and simpler at the present time.
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) lifted off in the northwest, starting around 21/1000 UTC, which is currently being assessed but is considered unlikely to have an Earth directed component. No other Earth directed CMEs have been seen in the last 24 hours.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Solar winds showed background conditions. Wind speeds varied between 300-400 km/s. Interplanetary Magnetic Field was weak with the north-south component also varying weakly, but with a southward bias. Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled (Kp 0-3).
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles (high energy protons) was very slightly elevated above the normal background level, but well below the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold.
Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary
Solar Activity: The flare probability has been increased, mainly due to the development of the region approaching north centre disc, with Moderate flares now considered likely and a slight chance of Strong flares.
Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: There have been several CMEs over the last few days, with confidence in this aspect of the forecast very low. There are two main features which may have the potential to affect Earth. Glancing blows are possible around the middle of the day (UTC) on Day 2 (23 Feb) and again on Day 3 (24 Feb). In addition, late Day 3 or Day 4 (24-25 Feb) a slight fast wind enhancement may occur, however at most wind speeds may become slightly elevated around 400-450 km/s.
Geomagnetic activity is forecast to be mainly Quiet to Unsettled at first, but activity may increase to give a chance of G1/Minor Storm (Kp 5) intervals and a slight chance of G2/Moderate Storm (Kp 6) intervals on Days 2-3 mainly due to the risk of CME influence.
Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: The count rate of energetic particles is likely to persist at background levels, but with a slight chance of increasing above the S1/Minor radiation storm threshold in response to any larger flares.
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Solar imagery
SDO AIA-193
This channel highlights the outer atmosphere of the Sun - called the corona - as well as hot flare plasma. Hot active regions, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections will appear bright here. The dark areas - called coronal holes - are places where very little radiation is emitted, yet are the main source of solar wind particles.
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SDO AIA-304
This channel is especially good at showing areas where cooler dense plumes of plasma (filaments and prominences) are located above the visible surface of the Sun. Many of these features either can't be seen or appear as dark lines in the other channels. The bright areas show places where the plasma has a high density.
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