Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Thursday 6 Mar - Saturday 15 Mar
A split in weather conditions is likely across the UK at first during early March. Northwestern areas will see some rain and stronger winds at times, as Atlantic weather systems arrive. These spells of wet and windy weather will drift southeast to some degree, but will weaken. High pressure is likely to have more influence across the south of the UK, at least at first. However, through this period there is an increasing chance of changeable conditions becoming more widely dominant across the UK with more in the way of rain at times for all areas, even in the south. Although, there will still be some drier interludes between these periods of unsettled conditions. Temperatures overall likely to be above average and potentially very mild early in this period.
Sunday 16 Mar - Sunday 30 Mar
Changeable conditions most likely through mid-March. Showers or longer spells of rain at times for all areas though likely more frequent in the north and west of the country. The south and east seeing drier interludes. Temperatures likely to be above average. During late March there is an increased chance of high pressure becoming more dominant. This bringing more prolonged settled spells with the focus of rain and stronger winds across the far northwest of the country. Above average temperatures remain likely.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).