Will it be a white Christmas?

However, for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow. We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December, with snow actually settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 - 2020 long-term averaging period).

White Christmases were more frequent in the 18^th and 19^th centuries, even more so before the change of calendar in 1752 which effectively brought Christmas Day back by 12 days. Climate change has also brought higher average temperatures over land and sea and this generally reduced the chances of a white Christmas.

What is a white Christmas?

For the Met Office to declare a ‘white Christmas’, a single snowflake has to be observed falling on the 24 hours of 25 December, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station. This is because it needs to be officially verified both for our climate records, and also to provide consistency and certainty.

How likely is a white Christmas?

We can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand.

Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5% of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day. This means we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be a 'white Christmas'.

However, the Dickensian scene of widespread snow lying on the ground on Christmas Day is much rarer. There has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground (where more than 40% of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9 am) four times since 1960—in 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.

When was the last white Christmas?

Technically, 2023 was the last white Christmas in the UK with 11% of stations recording snow falling, although none reported any snow lying on the ground. Before that, 2022 saw 9% of weather stations recording falling snow, but none with any snow settling. 2021 and 2020 were also technically white Christmases, both with 6% of weather stations recording snow falling, but in these years, less than 1% of stations reported any snow lying on the ground in 2021 and only 4% in 2020.

There was no record of snow falling at any station in the UK in 2018, or in 2019.

The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. It was extremely unusual, as not only was there snow on the ground at 83% of stations (the highest amount ever recorded) but snow or sleet also fell at 19% of stations.

We also had a white Christmas in 2009, when 13% of stations recorded snow or sleet falling, and 57% reported snow lying on the ground.