UK Climate Resilience Programme additional resources

The UK Climate Resilience Programme produced a wide range of outputs, including data, journal papers, reports and briefings.

Data

1. Samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation

This data set is designed to better understand the statistics of three extreme winters, as sampled by the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). Each data set contains physically, spatially and temporally coherent information for several variables for these extreme winters. It has been generated by climateprediction.net, a volunteer computing project.

For each of the three winters, there is a 1200-1300 member initial condition ensemble based on the atmosphere-only HadAM4 model at 60km resolution, driven by the boundary conditions from UKCP18 Global. There is also a baseline data set for 2007-2016.

Some of the members represent very high return periods. Due to the conditioning arising from the prescribed lower boundary conditions, these ensembles cannot be used in isolation to quantify risk. However, these very high return period members would be suitable for use in H++ scenarios.

The interim data is accessible on the CEDA archive. 

2. Enhancing the resilience of the water sector to drought events: climate service pilots (eFLaG)

The eFLaG project co-developed, with the water industry and regulatory partners, a pilot climate service to ensure a coherent, national resilience approach to future drought events affecting the UK’s water resources under a changing climate.

The eFLaG project dataset is available to download from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology website. 

Journal Papers

1. CREWS-UK (Characterising and adapting to climate risks in the UK wine sector)

• Nesbitt, A., Dorling, S., Jones, R., Smith, D.K.E., Krumins, M., Gannon, K.E., Dorling, L., Johnson, Z. and Conway, D. 2022. Climate change projections for UK viticulture to 2040: a focus on improving suitability for Pinot noir. Oeno One, Vol. 56 No. 3

2. Climate Risk Indicators

• Arnell, N.W., Kay, A.L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A.C., and Lowe, J.A. 2020 Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators. Climate Risk Management, 100265
• Arnell, N.W., Freeman, A., Kay, A.L., Rudd, A.C., and Lowe, J.A. 2021. Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming. Environmental Research Communications, 3.
• Arnell, N.W., 2022. The implications of climate change for emergency planning. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 83.
• Arnell, N.W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R. 2021. The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK. Environmental Research Letters
• Arnell, N.W., and Freeman, A. 2021. The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK. Climatic Change
• Arnell, N., and Freeman, A. 2021. The impact of climate change on policy-relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom. Climate Resilience and Sustainability
• Kay, A.L., Griffin, A., Rudd, A.C., Chapman, R.M., Bell, V.A. and Arnell, N.W. 2021. Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain. Advances in Water Resources, 151.

3. ClimaCare: Climate resilience of care settings

• Ibbetson, A., Milojevic, A., Mavrogianni, A., Oikonomou, E., Jain, N., Tsoulou, I., Petrou, G., Gupta, R., Davies, M., Wilkinson, P., 2021. Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat. Climate Risk Management, 100307
• Oikonomou, E., Mavrogianni, A., Davies, M., and Gupta, R., 2020. R104: ClimaCare: Climate resilience in care settings. CIBSE

4. UK Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Research and Policy

• Merkle, M., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Seo, B., Harrison, P.A., Harmáčková, Z.V.; Pedde, S. and Rounsevell, M., 2022. Downscaling population and urban land use for socio-economic scenarios in the UK. Regional Environmental Change. 22, 106
• O’Neill, Brian C. et al: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change. November 25 2020.
• Pedde, Simona; Harrison, Paula A., Holman, Ian P., Powney, Gary D., Lofts, Stephen; Schmucki, Reto; Gramberger, Marc and Bulock, James M., 2021: Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of the Total Environment. 756, 143172
• Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Simona Pedde, James M. Bullock, Ornella Dellaccio, Jennifer Dicks, George Linney, Magnus Merkle, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Jon Stenning, Paula A. Harrison, Improving regional applicability of the UK shared socioeconomic Pathways through iterative participatory co-design, Climate Risk Management, Volume 37, 2022, 100452.

5. Improving Climate Hazard Information

• Brown, S. J., 2020. Future changes in heatwave severity, duration and frequency due to climate change for the most populous cities. Weather and Climate Extremes. 30.
• Cotterill, D.F., Pope, J.O. and Stott, P.A. 2022. Future extension of the UK summer and its impact on autumn precipitation. Climate Dynamics.
• Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Christidis, N., Kendon, E., 2021. Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn. Weather and Climate Extremes. 33.
• Kay, G., Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Dunbar, T., Eade, R., Scaife, A., 2020. Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 094099
• McCarthy, M., Christidis, N., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D., Kay, G., Klein Tank, A., Lowe, J., Petch, J., Scaife, A., Stott, P., 2019, Drivers of the UK summer heatwave of 2018, Weather, 74, 11
• Thompson, V., Dunstone, N.J., Scaife, A.A. et al. 2017. High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate. Nat Commun 8, 107

6. Improving Climate Hazard Information:Digitization of observations

• Craig, P.M. and Hawkins, E., 2020. Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900-1910 using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal

7. Coastal resilience in the face of sea level rise: Making the most of natural systems

• Lazarus E.D., Aldabet S., Thompson C.E.L., et al. 2021. The UK needs an open data portal dedicated to coastal flood and erosion hazard risk and resilience. Anthropocene Coasts. 4(1): 137-146
• Masselink, G. and Lazarus, E.D., 2019. Defining coastal resilience. Water. 11. 
• Townend I.H., French J.R., Nicholls R.J., et al. 2021. Operationalising coastal resilience to flood and erosion hazard: A demonstration for England. Science of The Total Environment. 783: 146880

8. IMPRES: Impacts and risk assessment to better inform resilience planning

• A T Kennedy-Asser, O Andrews, D M Mitchell and R F Warren, 2021 Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. 16 014039

9. FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage

• Dale Murray. 2021. Managing the effects of extreme sub-daily rainfall and flash floods—a practitioner’s perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190550.
• Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
• Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
• Li, Q. et al. 2020. A novel 1D-2D coupled model for hydrodynamic simulation of flows in drainage networks. Advances in Water Resources. 137.
• Ming, X., Liang, Q., Xia, X., et al. 2020. Real-time flood forecasting based on a high-performance 2-D hydrodynamic model and numerical weather predictions. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR025583.
• Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219
• Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548
• Xilin, X. et al. 2019. A full-scale fluvial flood modelling framework based on a high-performance integrated hydrodynamic modelling system (HiPIMS). Advances in Water Resources. 132.

10. FRANTIC: Financial risk and the impact of climate change

• Mercure, JF. 2019. Toward risk-opportunity assessment in climate-friendly finance. One Earth. 1, pp. 395-398.
• Semieniuk, G, Campiglio, E, Mercure, J-F, Volz, U, Edwards, NR. 2021. Low-carbon transition risks for finance. WIREs Clim Change. 12:e678.

11. Erosion hazards in river catchments: Making critical infrastructure more climate resilient 

• Li, X. et al. 2019. A stochastic approach to modelling tidal creek evolution: Exploring environmental influences on creek topologies through ensemble predictions. Geophysical Research Letters. 46, pp. 13836-13844.
• Li, X., Cooper, J.R., Plater, A. J. 2021. Quantifying erosion hazards and economic damage to critical infrastructure in river catchments: Impact of a warming climate. Climate Risk Management.

12. From climate hazard to climate risk

• Garry, F., Bernie, D., Davie, J., Pope, E. 2021. Future climate risks to UK agriculture from compound events. Climate Risk Management for inclusion in Special Issue on UK Climate Risk Assessment and Management.
• Hanlon, H.M., Bernie, D., Carigi, G. et al. Future changes to high impact weather in the UK. Climatic Change 166, 50 (2021).
• Kause, A. et al., 2020. Communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings: A qualitative systematic review. Environmental Research Letters DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb265
• Kause, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fung, F., Taylor, A., Lowe, J. et  al. 2020. Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study About User Perceptions.  Sustainability, 12 (7), 2955.

13. CROP-NET: Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields

• Wheeler, R., Lobley, M., 2021. Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders. Climate Risk Management, 100313

14. STORMY-WEATHER: Plausible storm hazards in a future climate

• Catto, J. L., Dowdy, A. 2021. Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes. 32: 100313
• Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
• Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
• Lenderink G., de Vries H., Fowler H.J., et al. 2021. Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190544
• Moron V., Barbero R., Fowler H.J. and Mishra V. 2021 Storm types in India: linking rainfall duration, spatial extent and intensity. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200137
• Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219
• Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548

15. Adaptation & Resilience: Planning & Action for Manchester

• O’Hare, P. (2021) Manchester’s climate risk: a framework for understanding hazards & vulnerability. Manchester, Manchester Climate Change Agency.

16. A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters

• Gray, S.L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Ackerley, D. and Suri, D. 2020. Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters. Weather.

17. DRAW-IT: Designing Resilient and Adaptable Water management – Integrated & Interactive Tools

• Erfani, T., Pachos, K., Harou, J. J. 2020. Decision-dependent uncertainty in adaptive real-options water resource planning. Advances in Water Resources. Volume 136, 103490
• Harou, J. J. 2019. Towards a national water resources planning framework in England. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Water Management. 172:6, 271-272.
• J.E. Tomlinson, J.H. Arnott, J.J. Harou. 2020. A water resource simulator in Python. Environmental Modelling & Software. Volume 126, 104635.
• Marzano, R., Rougé, C., Garrone, P., et al. 2020. Response of residential water demand to dynamic pricing: Evidence from an online experiment. Water Resources and Economics, Volume 32, 100169.

18. Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of UK peatland systems

• Ritson, J. P., Alderson, D. M., Robinson, C. H., et al. 2021. Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of peatland ecosystem service provisioning – A research agenda. Science of The Total Environment. 759: 143467

19. Unlocking the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services in a changing climate

• Johnson, S., Yu, D. 2020. From flooding to finance: NHS ambulance-assisted evacuations of care home residents in Norfolk and Suffolk, UK. J Flood Risk Management. 13:e12592
• Yu, D., Yin, J., Wilby, R.L. et al. 2021. Disruption of emergency response to vulnerable populations during floods. Nat Sustain 3, 728–736

20. Addressing the resilience needs of the UK Health Sector: Climate Service Pilots

• Huang et al., 2022, Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales, Environmental Research Letters, early online access.

21. ExSAMPLES: Extreme Samples

• Leach et al., 2022, Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation, Weather and Climate Extremes.

22. OpenCLIM (Open Climate Impacts Modelling Framework)

• A T Kennedy-Asser, G Owen, G J Griffith et al (2022). Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. 17 034024
• K Jenkins, A Ford, C Robson et al (2022). Identifying adaptation ‘on the ground’: Development of a UK adaptation Inventory. Climate Risk Management. 36 100430

Reports and briefings 

1. Coastal Resilience in the face of sea-level rise: Making the most of natural systems

• Policy brief: Improving the resilience of UK coastal communities

2. Review of standards, guidance and codes of practice for enhancing climate resilience (from Met Office Work Package Climate Service Pilots)

• Final report: Review of climate resilience mainstreaming into regulatory and voluntary standards, national guidance, and other sectoral/industry codes of practice

3. MAGIC (Mobilising adaptation – governance of infrastructure through co-production)

• Designing Blue Green Infastructure for water management, human health and wellbeing 

4. RESIL-RISK: Understanding UK Perceptions of Climate Risk and Resilience

• Survey Findings Report  
• Briefing Note for UK Communicators
• Climate Outreach Public Engagement Guide
• Steentjes, K., McCamley, M., Berman, J., & Pidgeon, N. (2022). RESIL RISK Northern Ireland:
  Public perceptions of climate risks and adaptation in Northern Ireland. Cardiff: Cardiff University

5.MOCA: Mobilising Citizens for Adaptation: building local flood resilience through cooperative rainwater harvesting

• Sharp, Liz; Kenyon, Anna; Choe, Eun Yeong. 2020. Designing Blue Green Infrastructure (BGI) for water management, human health, and wellbeing: summary of evidence and principles for design. The University of Sheffield. Report.

6. Climate Information to Inform UK Decision Making

• Recommendations for filling current gaps in climate information: Climate Information to Support UK Decision Making (Murray Dale, JBA Consulting, July 2022)