Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Thursday 4 Jul - Saturday 13 Jul
The outlook period likely sees a continuation of the changeable conditions, with occasional bands of rain moving in from the west or northwest. There will be a good deal of dry, warm, and settled weather in between frontal systems, with the best conditions most likely in the south and east where winds will be lighter. In contrast, further north and west, it will generally be breezier, and any rain that does occur will be heaviest over the hills. Cloud cover will vary, with cloudier weather expected in the north and west, while clearer skies are likely in the south and east. Temperatures will be around or a little below average for the time of year, but on sunnier days with lighter winds, it will still feel warm or rather warm.
Sunday 14 Jul - Sunday 28 Jul
On balance most likely rather changeable at first, with periods of unsettled and cloudy, wet weather mixed with spells of dry and fine weather, with weather systems tending to come from the west. This means that the west is likely to see the wettest conditions, while the east will tend to be drier. By mid month there is a signal for more settled conditions to develop, so more in the way of dry weather, although still with a risk of some rain / showers at times. Temperatures close to average at first, but with a greater chance of warmer than average conditions later in the period.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).