Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Saturday 15 Feb - Monday 24 Feb
Southeasterly winds are likely at the start of this period. This will maintain below average temperatures and often cloudy conditions. There is a chance of even colder conditions developing temporarily, which would see more wintry showers, especially in eastern parts of the country. Meanwhile, Atlantic frontal zones, bringing milder conditions and rain, will attempt to move in from the west or southwest. Early in this period these look likely to have limited influence over the UK though should they push further northeastwards this would increase the chance of snow for some areas. The balance and transition between colder easterly winds and milder, wetter southwesterly winds remains uncertain during mid-February, but towards the end of this period, the milder, wetter conditions are likely to have spread across much of the country.
Tuesday 25 Feb - Tuesday 11 Mar
Although there is a small risk of colder conditions lingering for a time at the start of this period, it is most likely that an unsettled theme will probably have become established, with weather systems moving close to or across the UK. This will mean bands of rain and perhaps periods of strong winds spreading in from the west, interspersed with some drier and brighter interludes, but likely bringing above average rainfall amounts overall. Temperatures are most likely to become close to or a little above average by early March.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).