Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Monday 16 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec
Monday looks like a mainly dry if largely cloudy day. However, the far north will see some rain, especially northwest Scotland, with some light rain and drizzle likely for west-facing hills elsewhere. All parts will be mild. Around the middle of next week, low pressure may dominate, with a spell of mild, wet and windy weather for most places. Thereafter, while high pressure may try and build at times, especially in the south late in the period, the more likely scenario is for an unsettled regime to dominate. Spells of wind and rain, perhaps with some hill snow in the north, are likely, followed by blustery showers, these most frequent and perhaps wintry at times in the northwest. Temperatures will vary around average, with oscillations between colder and milder interludes.
Thursday 26 Dec - Thursday 9 Jan
Mainly unsettled conditions appear more likely than not for most, with spells of wind and rain followed by showers affecting most areas but especially towards the northwest of the UK. Some sleet and snow is also likely at times, especially on high ground in the north. However, there are also some signs that more settled conditions are possible at times, these perhaps most likely across the south late in December and into early January. Temperatures are likely to be around or slightly above average overall, but with any more settled interludes bringing a risk of frost and fog.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).