Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Tuesday 18 Mar - Thursday 27 Mar
High pressure is expected to be centred to the east of the UK for much of next week. Initially there should be a good deal of dry weather with sunny spells by day, but still the potential for some chilly nights at first. Daytime temperatures will probably start around average, but gradually increase day by day. As we move towards the weekend and into the following week, we are likely to see a gradual transition to less settled conditions. So rain or showers are expected at times, mostly focussed across the south and west at first, then more widely later. With winds predominantly coming from the south or southwest it will also become much milder, possibly warm in places.
Friday 28 Mar - Friday 11 Apr
Confidence is low, but changeable weather patterns are most likely at the end of March. This means periods of unsettled, wet and windy weather interspersed with some drier and brighter spells. Into early April, there may be a transition to more frequent drier and more settled spells. Temperatures will probably be above average overall.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).