Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Thursday 28 Nov - Saturday 7 Dec
Probably a quieter interlude to start this period for much of the UK as high pressure builds across the north with a return of night frosts. The high is likely to migrate eastwards during the second half of next week, potentially allowing some outbreaks of rain to move into some some western and northwestern areas along with some stronger winds, these probably edging into other parts of the UK by next weekend, although the east and southeast may hang on to drier conditions throughout. Into December, and while signals are mixed it looks most likely that high pressure may re-assert itself close to or over the UK, with temperatures generally near average, but some overnight frost is likely, and rather cold by day where any fog persists.
Sunday 8 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec
The start of this period looks like being largely settled, with high pressure close to if not over the UK. However as we move further into December there are signs that it will become less settled with west or northwesterly types preferred, These will bring some wetter and windier interludes with a risk of some snow, especially for hills in the north. These conditions look more likely to dominate towards the middle of December. Temperatures generally close to average through the period.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).