Ever wondered why our forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole? When looking at forecasts beyond five days into the future the chaotic nature of the atmosphere starts to come into play - small events currently over the Atlantic can have potentially significant impacts on our weather in the UK in several days' time. Therefore, whilst we can still forecast the general feel of the weather to a relatively high level of accuracy using our ensemble models, it becomes harder to offer local detail to as high a level of accuracy as our shorter range forecasts. For this reason, our text forecasts for 5 days and beyond are written on the scale of the UK as a whole.
Long range forecast
Long range forecast
Wednesday 15 Jan - Friday 24 Jan
High pressure is likely to lie close to southern UK initially, with generally settled conditions prevailing across the south. Cloud amounts will be variable and often large, with some fog developing under clearer spells, especially in the south. Frontal systems will spread from the northwest of the UK, bringing some rain and windier conditions here. These spreading further south at times with windier conditions and frontal bands of rain making more progress across the whole of the UK from next week with the potential for deeper lows with stronger winds to approach the UK. Temperatures are likely to be generally a little above average, falling to around average into next week, though the south or east may see the odd rather cold start under clear skies and lighter winds.
Saturday 25 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb
A dominant flow from the Atlantic drives an unsettled, milder and windier than average period. This likely leading to bands of rain and periods of stronger winds at times, however the potential for brief cold northerly spells remains following any deep lows crossing the region, though these brief before a milder westerly likely returns.
Why isn't there more detail in the long range forecast?
Our long range forecast (which is updated on a daily basis) provides an indication of how the weather might change, or be different from normal, (i.e. warmer, colder, wetter, drier) across the whole UK. Met Office meteorologists consider output from a range of weather models when writing these forecasts. These models include those from the Met Office as well as models from other global forecasting centres such as the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts ( ECMWF).