Aviation forecast performance

Contents

• Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Verification Reports
• Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Verification Reports
• NATS Low Visibility Procedure (LVP) Matrix

Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) Verification Reports

We provide monthly CAA Verification Reports, which the CAA review.

We measure:

• The timeliness of short-term landing forecasts (TRENDS)
• The Global Model performance and timeliness of global significant weather bulletins
• The accuracy of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)

CAA Verification Reports are available on a monthly basis. 

CAA Verification Reports - 2024

• CAA Verification Report - January 2024
• CAA Verification Report - February 2024
• CAA Verification Report - March 2024
• CAA Verification Report - April 2024
• CAA Verification Report - May 2024
• CAA Verification Report - June 2024
• CAA Verification Report - July 2024
• CAA Verification Report - August 2024

CAA Verification Reports - 2023

• CAA Verification Report - January 2023
• CAA Verification Report  - February 2023
• CAA Verification Report - March 2023
• CAA Verification Report - April 2023
• CAA Verification Report - May 2023
• CAA Verification Report - June 2023
• CAA Verification Report - July 2023
• CAA Verification Report - August 2023
• CAA Verification Report - September 2023
• CAA Verification Report - October 2023
• CAA Verification Report - November 2023
• CAA Verification Report - December 2023

Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) Verification Reports

We provide Verification Reports for our Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF). These reports ensure airlines and pilots have accurate airport forecasts for planning.

• We measure performance against targets set by the Civil Aviation Authority
• We use observations from Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) to verify TAFs for UK civil airports
• We use statistical algorithms to assess accuracy of cloud base and surface visibility
• Each download includes a more detailed description of the method used for verification.

TAF Verification Reports are available by location, with varying lead times (T+9, T+24 and T+30). Reports are available as a PDF file. New reports are available on a monthly basis.

TAF Verification Reports - Leeds Bradford Airport and north of Leeds Bradford Airport

• Verification Report - 9-hour TAFs (North)
• Verification Report - 24-hour TAFs (North)

TAF Verification Reports - South of Leeds Bradford Airport

• Verification Report - 9-hour TAFs (South)
• Verification Report - 24-hour TAFs (South)
• Verification Report - 30-hour TAFs (South)

TAF Verification Reports - Summary

• Summary Verification Report

NATS Low Visibility Procedure (LVP) Matrix

We help Air Traffic Service (ATS) units manage airport capacity. We provide accurate advance forecasts of low visibility and cloud base.

We provide risk-based forecasts of potential LVPs at many airports. Our LVP Verification Reports summarise LVP occurrences against forecast risk levels for six airports.

We base LVP Verification Reports on forecasts issued to NATS 12 hours ahead for the following day, and early in the morning of the current day.

The LVP Verification Report is updated by 30 June each year.

• LVP Verification Report - 2023-2024

Understanding the LVP Verification Report

• The shaded area shows where the forecast LVP risk levels match the expected frequency of events
• A plotted line shows the probability of risks against the observed frequency of LVPs
• When the plotted line is within the shaded area, it is highlighted in green in the accompanying table
• When the plotted line is above or below the shaded area, it is highlighted in yellow in the accompanying table. This represents under-forecasting or over-forecasting respectively.

An example of an LVP verification report