How climate science is protecting military capability

From aircraft carriers operating in warmer seas to weapons systems performing in extreme conditions, climate change poses a critical risk to UK defence capabilities. 

Using our climate expertise to support UK defence 

During 2023, the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) was tasked by the Ministry of Defence (MOD) directorate of Climate Change and Environment (CCE) to evaluate the impact that climate change may have on future Defence capability. The Met Office was identified as a key partner for the co-delivery of this project given our ability to provide authoritative climate data and capacity to advise with deep climate science expertise.  

The purpose of Dstl’s Climate Change Capability Risk Review (CCCRR) Phase 1, delivered as part of their Support & Sustainability Programme, was to develop a quantitative method that could highlight when and where military capability may be compromised by future environmental conditions. This ranged from the Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier all the way to individual small arms and light weapons. The environmental operating limits of these capabilities were obtained from their design documents and compared to the climate conditions the capabilities would be expected to face in the future. 

Testing capabilities across five regions 

The assessment was conducted for five regions of UK National Interest under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5) over four different time horizons (present-day, 2030s, 2040s and 2050s), primarily focusing on changes to near-surface air temperature and sea surface temperature with some consideration of changes to relative humidity.  The overall findings highlighted that MOD is carrying a level of unknown risk across its platforms/equipment as a result of climate change and the resilience of these platforms/equipment needs further review to maintain operational advantage in a climatically changing world.  

Key findings and recommendations

This assessment has provided justification for why climate change data should be implemented into business-as-usual defence procurement and related risk management processes. Dstl are currently working to advise MOD’s CCE directorate on how this can be achieved as part of Phase II of their Support & Sustainability programme.  

It also demonstrated to Dstl and the involved parts of MOD that Met Office climate data and expertise is highly valuable. As MOD continues to respond to the emerging security risks posed by climate change, further expert support and data provision will be crucial.

Dstl’s final report to the MOD CCE directorate stated: “…it became clear that it is essential to have climate science experts engaged throughout as there is a great deal of complexity in predicting future climate that needs to be understood […] With such a complex area to explore, the Dstl team benefitted enormously from having experts within the Met Office involved as part of the work. As the work progresses this will become increasingly important.”

Currently, the Met Office is supporting CCCRR Phase II by advising on Dstl's use of climate parameters to inform future defence procurement, as well as providing preliminary analysis of future temperatures that will be encountered by defence assets. In due course, the Met Office will provide additional climate data and analysis which will be used to update the Defence Standard 00-035 Environmental Handbook for Defence Material, Part 4: Natural Environments that environmental standards platforms/equipment are designed to operate within.