WISER Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

The MENA region experiences a range of weather and climate hazards including extreme heat, drought and flooding. It is estimated there are over 50 million people in the region who need humanitarian assistance, making them more vulnerable to the impacts of such extremes.   

The impacts from our changing climate cascade through complex systems in unpredictable ways, exacerbating security threats and presenting new ones. In a region that is already fragile due to previous and ongoing conflict, effective early warning systems are vital, protect lives and can, when combined with other societal strengthening, help address national security challenges. 

Recognising this, WISER MENA seeks to provide support to humanitarian organisations to improve their capability and opportunity to integrate weather and climate forecasts and warnings into their operations. This ultimately aims to support them in making critical decisions to take early action which can ultimately save lives, livelihoods and reduce response costs. From 2022-2023, an extensive scoping exercise was conducted to underpin the design of the WISER MENA programme.

WISER MENA Projects 

Supporting the generation, access and use of weather and climate information in conflict and post conflict affected contexts.

Whilst Anticipatory Action and community-based Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) are well- established among the humanitarian community in other areas of the world, they are less widespread in the MENA region. 

WISER MENA is therefore aiming to stimulate this through working closely with humanitarian organisations at regional, national and local levels to identify how they can use forecasts to act on weather and climate information sooner to avoid negative impacts.  

Projects supporting this effort include:

Istibak 

The Istibak project is delivered by the British Red Cross, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC) Societies, IFRC Network Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and World Food Programme.  

Istibak is working to determine how International and Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) and refugees in the region can be better protected from the impacts of severe weather. 

Through Istibak, the first MENA Dialogue Platform was held in July 2024 focusing on ‘Preparing for the (un)predictable: connecting the dots’, the event highlighted the urgency of anticipatory action in addressing the myriad crises affecting the MENA region. 

A MENA Anticipatory Action Regional Community of Practice has also been established through this project, led by IFRC and World Food Programme, which creates a space for over 40 organisations to coordinate technical and advocacy activities around Anticipatory Action and to collaborate, learn and exchange knowledge. 

Provision of weather forecasts 

Where there is limited local resource to provide regular operational forecasts, the Met Office in the UK has been providing forecasts directly to humanitarian organisations.  This is done in partnership with the  National Meteorological Services in the countries and we will also be working with them to build the capacity to provide forecasts directly to those who need them in the country. 

Developing Early Warning Systems (EWS) for farmers within Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPTs) 

A small grant to the Palestinian Agricultural Development Association (PARC) in the Occupied Palestinian Territories (OPTs) has aimed to develop an Early Warning System (EWS) for farmers.  This provides impact-based alerts to grape farmers to support preventative action for weather-related crop disease, which ultimately means that farmers can better prepare during growing seasons to avoid potential losses.

Strengthening seasonal forecasting: SeaFoAM and SeaSCAPE 

Seasonal forecasts can support planning and preparation in the longer term and can be an important decision-making tool for many sectors, including water management, energy, humanitarian, agriculture and health. WISER MENA implements a holistic approach to the enhancing of seasonal forecasting, where the resilience, autonomy and skill of seasonal forecasting is improved, while concurrently building capacity within the region’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to communicate and co-produce tailored forecasts with users.   

WISER MENA is improving both the production and use of seasonal forecasts in the region through the SeaFoAM and SeaSCAPE projects respectively.  

Seasonal Forecasting Across MENA (SeaFoAM) project 

The SeaFoAM project is working in partnership with the Moroccan National Metorological and Hydrological Service, Maroc Meteo, to make the North Africa Regional Climate Centre’s (RCC) outlooks more objective. This is driven primarily by numerical seasonal prediction models, such as Met Office’s GloSea6, which is in-line with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recommendations, and has previously led to improvements in forecasting skill in other regions, such as East Africa.  

SeaFoAM hopes to stimulate research into the seasonal drivers of the climate in the region using this approach, and is also looking at the role Artificial Intelligence (AI) can play in supporting seasonal forecasting across the MENA region. 

Seasonal Co-production and Application in MENA (SeaSCAPE) project 

The SeaSCAPE project is working in partnership with the World Meteolrolgical Organisation (WMO) to strengthen the Arab Climate Outlook Forum (ArabCOF), with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) to deliver seasonal training to National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) forecasters, and with Maroc Meteo to tailor forecasts for their stakeholders in the water and agriculture sectors.  

Together, the two projects recognise there is no use in a high-quality forecast if no one can understand how they can make decisions using it, and it is challenging to build trust with users without an accurate forecast. The pro-active synergy between them will collectively enhance the quality and accessibility of seasonal information for early decision making. 

Key activities across both projects include: 

• Documenting current processes in the production of the consensus-based ArabCOF forecast, and identifying improvements to methodologies and automation. 

• Development of an Objective Seasonal Forecasting (OSF) framework which automatically downloads forecast data, enables analysis and calibration and produce visual outlook maps. 

• Exploration into the use of AI/ML in prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – a key driver of seasonal variability for parts of northern Africa. 

• Survey of ArabCOF (Arab Climate Outlook Forum) participant needs and subsequent co-development of priorities with WMO to support the forum evolve. 

• A partnership with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) to co-deliver training on seasonal forecasting, communication and co-production to NMHS forecasters.  

• Co-production of tailored seasonal forecasts for sectoral users in Morocco, supported by Maroc Meteo. This collaboration will explore the need for National Met Services to co-produce bespoke, tailored forecasting products for their users, and recognising the need to evolve from a ‘one size fits all’ approach. 

Support to the Jahez project in Jordan 

WISER MENA is supporting the Jahez  (“Ready”) projectby working with International Water Management Institute (IWMI) to build resilience to extreme weather and climate change in refugee-hosting communities in Jordan.  This will be achieved through a combination of community-based disaster-risk reduction (DRR) and nature-based solutions. Jahez will also seek to support the Government of Jordan to access climate finance. Activities include: 

• Working with Government of Jordan to strengthen the early warning system in Jahez’s 3 target sites, Irbid, Ramtha and Azraq Refugee Camp. 

• Supporting Jordan Meteorological Department (JMD) with some of their priority capacity building needs. 

• Support Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) skills development in Jordan, moving from what the weather will be, to what the weather will do. 

• Collaborate on a climate risk report for Jordan which identifies how changes in the climate in the next 30 years may impact on Jordan’s security and on refugee and refugee host populations to inform policy response. 

Stimulate innovation for forecasts in MENA 

Across the WISER programme, innovation has come from local actors who have specific, informed ideas on how to communicate and use forecasts to support action. 

WISER MENA supports pilot projects through its small grants to take these ideas forward and an innovative verbal pitch approach for this helped reduce barriers to accessing FCDO funding which smaller organisations sometimes face.   

In parallel, WISER MENA is also looking at how regional climate initiatives at scale can strengthen the weather and climate science needed to underpin strong forecasts and climate projections.   

Projects supporting this effort include: 

Arabia Weather

The Arabia Weather project aims to address the pressing need for improved and community-driven weather and climate communication specifically within the Arab region. Recognizing the critical importance of localised, real-time weather data, the project is designed to empower communities to actively contribute to and enhance the accuracy of weather information. 

BBC Media Action Algeria 

The BBC Media Action Algeria project aims to improve access to and utilization of weather and climate information among the Amazigh community in Algeria, promoting resilience and preparedness against climate-related challenges.