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for Saturday Saturday sees a pronounced north-south split. England, Wales, and possibly Northern Ireland will be overcast, wet, and dull, with heavier overnight rain easing but light rain and drizzle persisting. Early morning fog is likely in the far south, slowly lifting as winds pick up. There is a small

the day across the country. We will see some isolated showers just feeding in from the northwest. One or two bubbling up across parts of England and Wales through the afternoon, but these will be fairly light and fairly well scattered. And there should be a bit more in the way of sunshine between those

. Elsewhere, the majority will remain dry, though one or two light showers are possible, particularly over eastern England. The increased breeze may actually help to brighten things up in some areas, breaking up the cloud and allowing for occasional sunny spells. Temperatures and how it will feel

The start of the week will be fine and dry with sunny spells for many in England and Wales. However, a series of weak fronts will push into Scotland and Northern Ireland bringing cloudier weather here with a chance of some light rain, especially across the northwest.   It could be the hottest spell

will attempt to move into the UK from the southwest on Friday morning, heralding the end of this impactful cold spell. Increasing cloud and light rain, perhaps preceded by a little snow, will begin to affect northwestern then northern parts of the UK through the weekend. Here, temperatures will be back

, but it is going to be weakening as it does so. So increasingly, that rain will be fairly light and patchy. There'll be some sunny spells developing up towards the north and west, with a scattering of showers and quite prolonged sunshine still holding on down towards the south and east. “It's here where

yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).

previously. This paper is the third in a series of three reports from the Met Office Hadley Centre that address the recent pause in global warming and seek to answer the following questions. What have been the recent trends in other indicators of climate over this period; what are the potential drivers

expected throughout the period. This is done using a dynamical seasonal prediction computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system developed in the Met Office’s climate research division, the Hadley Centre. The seasonal prediction model is based on a Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

these features. 5.1.1 Method 1 (RA) This is the most basic method and is a simple 12-month running average. At each hour in the time-series calculate the 1-year average of the baseline mass mixing ratios centred on this hour (y mc ). This is the longterm trend component, subtracting this from the actual