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Report Understanding and quantifying extreme precipitation events in South Asia Part III – Observational datasets for the assessment of present day monsoon-season rainfall extremes in Nepal CARISSA Activity 4: Climate services for the water and hydropower sectors in South Asia March 2022 Delivery

(dry season). Climate Outlook Africa: July to April Current Status 10 Current Status – Central Africa Current Status: Temperature Current Status: Rainfall July August September July August September Niger Warm Normal Normal Wet^^ Wet^^ Wet^^ Chad Normal Normal Normal Wet^^ Wet^^ Wet^^ DRC Warm^ Warm

Rains’ season (March to May) there is considerable regional variation. The Horn of Africa region is likely to be drier than normal, however parts of South Sudan and Tanzania likely to be wetter than normal. Parts of West Africa along the Gulf of Guinea are likely to be wetter than normal. Below

conditions are likely to be wetter than normal across areas which have already seen impacts from flooding over the last few months. Much of the rest of South America, as well as the Caribbean, central and southern Europe and central parts of Asia are likely to be drier than normal. This is also true

of Southeast Asia (see figure 5.). The strongest annual warming is likely to occur in mainland Southeast Asia, with fairly uniform warming throughout the seasons. Regional surface air temperature is typically expected to rise by 2 °C by mid-century and by 4 °C by the end of the century, although

to increase across the whole of Southeast Asia (see figure 5.). The strongest annual warming is likely to occur in mainland Southeast Asia, with fairly uniform warming throughout the seasons. Regional surface air temperature is typically expected to rise by 2 °C by mid-century and by 4 °C by the end

) Note: Wet in the west * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: August to May Current Status 10 Current Status – MENA – North Africa Current Status: Temperature Current Status: Rainfall August September October August September

regions experiencing wetter than normal conditions and other regions drier than normal conditions.​ With the development of El Niño, the chance of heatwaves, drought and wildfire increases across parts of southern and southeast Asia and Australia, and wetter than normal conditions may

and other regions drier than normal conditions.​ With the development of El Niño, the chance of heatwaves, drought and wildfire increases across parts of southern and southeast Asia and Australia, and wetter than normal conditions may be experienced across parts of East Africa, central Asia and the Middle

of our weather. However, any shifts in these weather patterns will lead to some regions becoming drier and others becoming wetter. Warmer air under climate change can create heavier rain. By understanding how our changing climate affects these systems regionally, local governments can better prepare