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yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).

, but it is going to be weakening as it does so. So increasingly, that rain will be fairly light and patchy. There'll be some sunny spells developing up towards the north and west, with a scattering of showers and quite prolonged sunshine still holding on down towards the south and east. “It's here where

will attempt to move into the UK from the southwest on Friday morning, heralding the end of this impactful cold spell. Increasing cloud and light rain, perhaps preceded by a little snow, will begin to affect northwestern then northern parts of the UK through the weekend. Here, temperatures will be back

previously. This paper is the third in a series of three reports from the Met Office Hadley Centre that address the recent pause in global warming and seek to answer the following questions. What have been the recent trends in other indicators of climate over this period; what are the potential drivers

these features. 5.1.1 Method 1 (RA) This is the most basic method and is a simple 12-month running average. At each hour in the time-series calculate the 1-year average of the baseline mass mixing ratios centred on this hour (y mc ). This is the longterm trend component, subtracting this from the actual

expected throughout the period. This is done using a dynamical seasonal prediction computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system developed in the Met Office’s climate research division, the Hadley Centre. The seasonal prediction model is based on a Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

forecasters, advisors and specialist scientists on the interpretation and impact of the weather during an emergency. If required, Met Office experts are ready to attend or teleconference into tactical/strategic command and control centres. The Met Office’s Public Weather Service provides a range

, Marine synoptic, buoy observations, light vessels, hourly rainfall, national climate and radiosonde. Covering 24 hours and all WMO and MMS stations. Popular parameters include rainfall and temperature. FTP Alphanumeric, BUFR/IWXXM DPT Global Lightning Lightning strike location data (LEELA

, and improvements to the way mixing is represented in the boundary layer under certain cloud regimes has corrected a long-standing problem of unrealistic temperature profiles. In the tropics and sub-tropics, convection has more realistic structure and spurious light rain/drizzle is reduced

→ handles missing data automatically. Parallelizable → efficient on large datasets. Handles classification and regression tasks. Spatial Comparisons Time Series Predicted vs Actual Indicates underprediction during heavier rainfall events. Good agreement in light to moderate precipitation. XGBoost