Search results (3,080)

yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).

into the northwest later in the day. Further southeast, it will be a drier day overall, with sunny spells developing after a cloudy start. Winds will be mostly light in the south, but moderate to strong further north, with the potential for coastal gales in the far northwest. Temperatures will remain warm overnight

Office, said: “Storm Alex has clipped the southern edge of Britain today bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the country. The highest gust of 71 mph was at Berry Head on the Devon coast, but winds are now easing for most. Away from the south it is a more pleasant day, with light winds and bright

for Saturday. READ MORE: 'Brutal' cold snap? 'Barrage of snow'? Met Office weather headline review “Generally, a fine day really for this time in October, but the cloud is starting to thicken further west and there could be a few light showers getting into maybe Devon and Cornwall and Northern Ireland

- this is the T+ n timestep • Forecast validity time - the time the forecast is valid for, calculated from the forecast reference time + forecast period • Severity value (1 = light, 2 = moderate, 3 = severe) • Vertical height as pressure levels • Polygon unique identifier (order in which polygons are generated

autumn. This seasonality is caused by the amount of sunlight reaching the polar regions of the Earth which are virtually dark for 4 months over winter and light throughout the day for much of the summer. During the winter, in the absence of any sunlight, the sea ice insulates the ocean from

and west with isolated showers in the far north. The night of the 6th/7th was cold in some places with a minimum of 0.9 °C at Tulloch Bridge (Inverness-shire), followed by another warm dry sunny day for most. The 8th and 9th were generally cloudier, with isolated patches of light rain, but it remained

to be added in the right amounts to make the perfect system. • The first ingredient is energy from our Sun. The Sun importantly provides heat and light for the Earth. Hold up small button or a small ball of Blu Tack (this represents the Earth). Tell the group that if the Earth is this big, how big do we

these features. 5.1.1 Method 1 (RA) This is the most basic method and is a simple 12-month running average. At each hour in the time-series calculate the 1-year average of the baseline mass mixing ratios centred on this hour (y mc ). This is the longterm trend component, subtracting this from the actual

expected throughout the period. This is done using a dynamical seasonal prediction computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system developed in the Met Office’s climate research division, the Hadley Centre. The seasonal prediction model is based on a Met Office Hadley Centre climate model