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the far southwest, including Southwest Wales. Most regions will enjoy plenty of warm sunshine and light winds, especially in the west. Eastern areas will see more periods of low cloud, which will be most extensive overnight and may bring pockets of drizzle later in the period. However, sunny spells

autumn. This seasonality is caused by the amount of sunlight reaching the polar regions of the Earth which are virtually dark for 4 months over winter and light throughout the day for much of the summer. During the winter, in the absence of any sunlight, the sea ice insulates the ocean from

to be added in the right amounts to make the perfect system. • The first ingredient is energy from our Sun. The Sun importantly provides heat and light for the Earth. Hold up small button or a small ball of Blu Tack (this represents the Earth). Tell the group that if the Earth is this big, how big do we

and west with isolated showers in the far north. The night of the 6th/7th was cold in some places with a minimum of 0.9 °C at Tulloch Bridge (Inverness-shire), followed by another warm dry sunny day for most. The 8th and 9th were generally cloudier, with isolated patches of light rain, but it remained

- this is the T+ n timestep • Forecast validity time - the time the forecast is valid for, calculated from the forecast reference time + forecast period • Severity value (1 = light, 2 = moderate, 3 = severe) • Vertical height as pressure levels • Polygon unique identifier (order in which polygons are generated

expected throughout the period. This is done using a dynamical seasonal prediction computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system developed in the Met Office’s climate research division, the Hadley Centre. The seasonal prediction model is based on a Met Office Hadley Centre climate model

these features. 5.1.1 Method 1 (RA) This is the most basic method and is a simple 12-month running average. At each hour in the time-series calculate the 1-year average of the baseline mass mixing ratios centred on this hour (y mc ). This is the longterm trend component, subtracting this from the actual

previously. This paper is the third in a series of three reports from the Met Office Hadley Centre that address the recent pause in global warming and seek to answer the following questions. What have been the recent trends in other indicators of climate over this period; what are the potential drivers

The start of the week will be fine and dry with sunny spells for many in England and Wales. However, a series of weak fronts will push into Scotland and Northern Ireland bringing cloudier weather here with a chance of some light rain, especially across the northwest.   It could be the hottest spell

yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).