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volcano will erupt in Iceland? The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, are unlikely to be considered out of the ordinary in light of the historical record. It could be argued that up until recently, we have been fortunate: for example during the Grímsvötn

and thunderstorms, particularly into the evening. Further areas of rain may also develop in the west later in the day. Temperatures will be around to slightly above average in the north, and very warm and humid in the south, with the southeast potentially turning hot. Winds will be mostly light

will attempt to move into the UK from the southwest on Friday morning, heralding the end of this impactful cold spell. Increasing cloud and light rain, perhaps preceded by a little snow, will begin to affect northwestern then northern parts of the UK through the weekend. Here, temperatures will be back

, but it is going to be weakening as it does so. So increasingly, that rain will be fairly light and patchy. There'll be some sunny spells developing up towards the north and west, with a scattering of showers and quite prolonged sunshine still holding on down towards the south and east. “It's here where

yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).

- this is the T+ n timestep • Forecast validity time - the time the forecast is valid for, calculated from the forecast reference time + forecast period • Severity value (1 = light, 2 = moderate, 3 = severe) • Vertical height as pressure levels • Polygon unique identifier (order in which polygons are generated

and west with isolated showers in the far north. The night of the 6th/7th was cold in some places with a minimum of 0.9 °C at Tulloch Bridge (Inverness-shire), followed by another warm dry sunny day for most. The 8th and 9th were generally cloudier, with isolated patches of light rain, but it remained

to be added in the right amounts to make the perfect system. • The first ingredient is energy from our Sun. The Sun importantly provides heat and light for the Earth. Hold up small button or a small ball of Blu Tack (this represents the Earth). Tell the group that if the Earth is this big, how big do we

autumn. This seasonality is caused by the amount of sunlight reaching the polar regions of the Earth which are virtually dark for 4 months over winter and light throughout the day for much of the summer. During the winter, in the absence of any sunlight, the sea ice insulates the ocean from

forecasters, advisors and specialist scientists on the interpretation and impact of the weather during an emergency. If required, Met Office experts are ready to attend or teleconference into tactical/strategic command and control centres. The Met Office’s Public Weather Service provides a range