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volcano will erupt in Iceland? The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, are unlikely to be considered out of the ordinary in light of the historical record. It could be argued that up until recently, we have been fortunate: for example during the Grímsvötn
the influence of high pressure. The exception however may be northwest Scotland where there is a reasonable chance of further wind and rain. “Christmas Day itself is likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority. Once again, the far north may be windier, with a small chance
. Elsewhere, the majority will remain dry, though one or two light showers are possible, particularly over eastern England. The increased breeze may actually help to brighten things up in some areas, breaking up the cloud and allowing for occasional sunny spells. Temperatures and how it will feel
. Elsewhere, the majority will remain dry, though one or two light showers are possible, particularly over eastern England. The increased breeze may actually help to brighten things up in some areas, breaking up the cloud and allowing for occasional sunny spells. Temperatures and how it will feel
be locally heavy with cumulonimbus cloud and thunderstorm activity. More organised rain or showers are likely to affect the far southwest later in the day. Winds will be light inland during the morning but will strengthen to moderate or fresh levels later, becoming strong along some coastal areas
yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).
The start of the week will be fine and dry with sunny spells for many in England and Wales. However, a series of weak fronts will push into Scotland and Northern Ireland bringing cloudier weather here with a chance of some light rain, especially across the northwest. It could be the hottest spell
will be closer to average. Winds will be moderate to fresh in the northwest, but light elsewhere. Low pressure has now returned to the British Isles, with weather fronts expected to bring storms and showers over the weekend ⛈️ But it will still feel warm, with some mild and muggy nights on the way
, but it is going to be weakening as it does so. So increasingly, that rain will be fairly light and patchy. There'll be some sunny spells developing up towards the north and west, with a scattering of showers and quite prolonged sunshine still holding on down towards the south and east. “It's here where
for Saturday Saturday sees a pronounced north-south split. England, Wales, and possibly Northern Ireland will be overcast, wet, and dull, with heavier overnight rain easing but light rain and drizzle persisting. Early morning fog is likely in the far south, slowly lifting as winds pick up. There is a small
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