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yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).

for Saturday. READ MORE: 'Brutal' cold snap? 'Barrage of snow'? Met Office weather headline review “Generally, a fine day really for this time in October, but the cloud is starting to thicken further west and there could be a few light showers getting into maybe Devon and Cornwall and Northern Ireland

Office, said: “Storm Alex has clipped the southern edge of Britain today bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the country. The highest gust of 71 mph was at Berry Head on the Devon coast, but winds are now easing for most. Away from the south it is a more pleasant day, with light winds and bright

the influence of high pressure. The exception however may be northwest Scotland where there is a reasonable chance of further wind and rain. “Christmas Day itself is likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority. Once again, the far north may be windier, with a small chance

be locally heavy with cumulonimbus cloud and thunderstorm activity. More organised rain or showers are likely to affect the far southwest later in the day. Winds will be light inland during the morning but will strengthen to moderate or fresh levels later, becoming strong along some coastal areas

for Saturday Saturday sees a pronounced north-south split. England, Wales, and possibly Northern Ireland will be overcast, wet, and dull, with heavier overnight rain easing but light rain and drizzle persisting. Early morning fog is likely in the far south, slowly lifting as winds pick up. There is a small

and thunderstorms, particularly into the evening. Further areas of rain may also develop in the west later in the day. Temperatures will be around to slightly above average in the north, and very warm and humid in the south, with the southeast potentially turning hot. Winds will be mostly light

into the northwest later in the day. Further southeast, it will be a drier day overall, with sunny spells developing after a cloudy start. Winds will be mostly light in the south, but moderate to strong further north, with the potential for coastal gales in the far northwest. Temperatures will remain warm overnight

volcano will erupt in Iceland? The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, are unlikely to be considered out of the ordinary in light of the historical record. It could be argued that up until recently, we have been fortunate: for example during the Grímsvötn

- this is the T+ n timestep • Forecast validity time - the time the forecast is valid for, calculated from the forecast reference time + forecast period • Severity value (1 = light, 2 = moderate, 3 = severe) • Vertical height as pressure levels • Polygon unique identifier (order in which polygons are generated