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volcano will erupt in Iceland? The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn in 2010 and 2011 respectively, are unlikely to be considered out of the ordinary in light of the historical record. It could be argued that up until recently, we have been fortunate: for example during the Grímsvötn

the influence of high pressure. The exception however may be northwest Scotland where there is a reasonable chance of further wind and rain. “Christmas Day itself is likely to be settled, often cloudy, and dry with light winds for the majority. Once again, the far north may be windier, with a small chance

and thunderstorms, particularly into the evening. Further areas of rain may also develop in the west later in the day. Temperatures will be around to slightly above average in the north, and very warm and humid in the south, with the southeast potentially turning hot. Winds will be mostly light

into the northwest later in the day. Further southeast, it will be a drier day overall, with sunny spells developing after a cloudy start. Winds will be mostly light in the south, but moderate to strong further north, with the potential for coastal gales in the far northwest. Temperatures will remain warm overnight

. Elsewhere, the majority will remain dry, though one or two light showers are possible, particularly over eastern England. The increased breeze may actually help to brighten things up in some areas, breaking up the cloud and allowing for occasional sunny spells. Temperatures and how it will feel

, but it is going to be weakening as it does so. So increasingly, that rain will be fairly light and patchy. There'll be some sunny spells developing up towards the north and west, with a scattering of showers and quite prolonged sunshine still holding on down towards the south and east. “It's here where

The start of the week will be fine and dry with sunny spells for many in England and Wales. However, a series of weak fronts will push into Scotland and Northern Ireland bringing cloudier weather here with a chance of some light rain, especially across the northwest.   It could be the hottest spell

. Elsewhere, the majority will remain dry, though one or two light showers are possible, particularly over eastern England. The increased breeze may actually help to brighten things up in some areas, breaking up the cloud and allowing for occasional sunny spells. Temperatures and how it will feel

yellow, orange and red respectively - and indicate regions with relatively good seasonal prediction skill. Regions with ROC score between 0.6 and 0.7 show skill at lower levels but still better than guessing or use of climatology. Grey or light blue shading is used when scores are below 0.6 (i.e. near or below to the 0.5 'no-skill' threshold, suggesting forecasts in these regions are currently little better than guesswork).

the day across the country. We will see some isolated showers just feeding in from the northwest. One or two bubbling up across parts of England and Wales through the afternoon, but these will be fairly light and fairly well scattered. And there should be a bit more in the way of sunshine between those