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central and northern Scotland. Some of the showers could be heavy and, with light winds, they will be slow moving. Uncertain from the middle of the week Beyond the middle of the week the forecast for the UK is unusually uncertain, though the most likely scenario will see warm air returning across

and ‘thunder snow’. Light snow in areas of southern England Further south parts of Kent and south east England woke to snowfall this morning. This snow spread northwards giving a dusting of snow over the Wealds and Downs of southeast England. Current conditions Friday will continue unsettled

sunshine and a few blustery showers in Northern Ireland, Wales and south-west England. The Northern Isles are expected to remain largely dry until the evening. Winds will be light at first but will become moderate to fresh, and locally strong along western coasts, with a risk of gales. Temperatures

Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK e-mail: [email protected] of the RCMs are often different than the driving GCMs and arguably more credible given the improved performance of the RCM. This also suggests that local climate forcing will be a significant driver

parts of the north-east and the south-east were rather drier. The overall figure for England was 81% of average. Sunshine was slightly above average in many central and eastern areas, with an overall figure of 103%. 1st to 8th It was generally cloudy on the 1st, with patchy light rain for eastern

The start of the week will be fine and dry with sunny spells for many in England and Wales. However, a series of weak fronts will push into Scotland and Northern Ireland bringing cloudier weather here with a chance of some light rain, especially across the northwest. From Wednesday onwards while

should soon fade. Through the day cloud will increase from the northwest and could be thick enough for light rain or snow over higher ground in the north. Milder, more unsettled conditions will reach north-western parts of the UK before the end of the day. Boxing Day Saturday will see a return

mid-morning, spreading northeast through the day. Winds will be light at first but will widely become strong from the southwest, with gales, possibly severe, developing in many western coastal areas. After a cold start, with a widespread grass frost and local air frost, daytime temperatures

throughout the day will be around average or slightly higher than average in places, although cooler in the Southeast with the focus of higher temperatures further North and West.   Wednesday evening will see those showers mostly dying out with some light rain and drizzle affecting Northeastern

intervals, although the far north may see more cloud cover and isolated showers. There is a risk of low cloud and fog along some southern and eastern coasts, which could affect visibility and create a cooler, damp environment in these areas. Winds will be light to moderate, but fresh along