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drivers of the South Asian climate are the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These are irregular coupled atmosphere-ocean oscillations which drive variability in monsoon rainfall from year-to-year. In general, the warm (cool) phase of ENSO results in a drier (wetter

surface temperature and sea level), precipitation, by a significant margin, exhibits the most uncertainty in respect to spatial climate trends across Southeast Asia. Projected changes for 2050 in rainfall over Southeast Asia vary, depending on model, sub-region, and season (high confidence

the forecast data into X (Predictor) and the number of wet days into Y (Predictand) and setup CPT to produce precipitation maps plots for ROC below- and abovenormal number of wet days greater than a daily rainfall threshold of 0 mm or 10 mm, and the probabilistic forecasts for season of choice (OND

, located in this region, is one of the wettest places on Earth, receiving nearly 12 metres of rain annually, compared to around one metre in the UK. Interestingly, in contrast to much of South Asia, it is the northeast monsoon, not the southwest, that brings the primary wet season to southeastern India

contrasting precipitation trends across the South Asia region with some areas experiencing a wetting trend and others a drying trend. By the 2050s, all of South Asia will become significantly wetter in the monsoon season (June-September), particularly in southern Pakistan and western India. Eastern

) Srivastava et al. (2018) WMO (2008) Rajeevan et al. (2008) 2.1.2 Case study: Floods across South Asia region in 2007 The 2007 summer monsoon led to widespread flooding across the South Asia region, the main areas affected are shown in Figure 6. Over the duration of the monsoon season, 2000 people

An assessment of 12 dynamical seasonal prediction systems is conducted, assessing their ability to predict South Asian seasonal precipitation during the two key monsoon seasons; southwest (June to September (JJAS)) and northeast (October to November (OND)). This research has been conducted as part

, for example through including additional variables, such as temperature which has been routinely included in the SASCOF forecast process since 2021. Consideration could also be made for additional key seasons for specific regions in South Asia, such as the peak wet season in Afghanistan and Pakistan during

and September. So, if we already know the “typical” weather in a season – that is, the “climate”, then why do we need a forecast? Well a season’s characteristics naturally vary from one year to another; for example, a mild and wet winter one year may be followed by a cold and dry winter the next

the eastern Caribbean was drier than normal, despite an active tropical cyclone season. The only area that were wetter than normal was the far west of Cuba, where tropical cyclone impacts did occur. Outlook: Below normal rainfall is likely across the Middle East and North Africa during the next 3-6