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• wiser0057_odi-paper_forecast-based-early-action.pdf

  and late response in the case of droughts and cyclones 17 Figure 5 Illustration of possible outcomes of forecast-based early action 24 5 Acronyms ACAPS Assessment Capacities Project ARC African Risk Capacity ARDIS African and Asian Resilience in Disaster Insurance Scheme DFID UK Department

• User guidance for the UK three month outlook

  the precise weather for a particular day and place. At this longer range we have to acknowledge that many outcomes remain possible, even though only one can eventually occur. However, over the course of a whole season (or over a whole year or decade), factors in the global climate system

• Process-based assessment of an ensemble of climate projections for West Africa

  is not sufficient to assess model projections. Direct investigation of the mechanisms for future precipitation change is also important, and existing efforts in this area have generated valuable hypothesis about the potential drivers of wet and dry responses [e.g., Biasutti et al., 2008, 2009; Monerie et al

• Met Office festival forecast: Mixed conditions for late July festivals

  July festivals Author: Press Office Mon 28 Jul 2025 As festival season continues across the UK, the latest Met Office forecast is here to help festivalgoers prepare for the week ahead. With a number of major events kicking off from Thursday 31 July, conditions are expected to be mixed, with humid air

• Weekend weather: A mixed weekend with brighter spells and some showers

  are not expected to be as frequent or intense as some seen recently, and many places will stay dry for long periods. Later in the afternoon, cloud and rain will begin to move in from the west. Northern Ireland will see the first of this wetter weather, with rain spreading into western Scotland through

• Festival forecast: unsettled start, improving into the weekend

  with temperatures perhaps climbing into the high 20s Celsius in some spots📈 pic.twitter.com/URaUDBwOuo — Met Office (@metoffice) June 9, 2026 Gottwood Festival – June 11-14 At Gottwood Festival, Thursday is expected to be a wet start, with rain moving across the area and some heavier bursts at times. While

• July 2026 weather stats: A regional breakdown

  July is often one of the wetter summer months, rainfall was exceptionally scarce across much of the UK. Only northern and western Scotland saw anything approaching significant rainfall totals. Nationally, the UK received just 19% of its average rainfall for the time of year, while England and Wales

• Why has it been so warm and humid recently?

  . That warmth has continued into July, with mean temperatures placing this summer so far in the top 5% of all summers on record. Night-time temperatures have been especially notable, exceeding previous records for this stage of the season. By the end of the recent hot spell, temperatures of 30°C or more had

• An ‘unprecedented’ El Niño and its implications for the weather forecast

  South America (see figure below). El Niño also affects tropical cyclones and suppresses Atlantic hurricanes by increasing wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Consistent with this, there have only been three storms so far this season, but it only takes one large hurricane to lead to devastating

• Festival forecast: Mixed weather outlook for UK events this week

  will lean wetter than elsewhere. Unearthed Festival 19-21 June A mixed picture is also expected, with further spells of rain at times, but also drier and brighter interludes. It will feel warm for many, with increasing humidity as the week progresses. These conditions may lead to occasional heavier showers