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the precise weather for a particular day and place. At this longer range we have to acknowledge that many outcomes remain possible, even though only one can eventually occur. However, over the course of a whole season (or over a whole year or decade), factors in the global climate system

Storm Ewan was named by Met Éireann, the Irish Met service, as the fifth named storm of the season on Saturday night. Storm Ewan brought strong winds to southern areas of Ireland on Sunday 26 February

and hill snow in some areas. Chief Meteorologist Andy Page said: “Polar Maritime air is becoming established across the UK with colder conditions expected for the next few days, but nothing unusual for late winter. The week will be characterised by wet and windy spells across the southern half of the UK

began with a mix of rain and wintry showers, particularly affecting northern and western regions. Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the season, brought significant disruption from the 6th to the 8th, with heavy rain and severe gales, especially in coastal areas of Wales and southwest England

began with a mix of rain and wintry showers, particularly affecting northern and western regions. Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the season, brought significant disruption from the 6th to the 8th, with heavy rain and severe gales, especially in coastal areas of Wales and southwest England

and late response in the case of droughts and cyclones 17 Figure 5 Illustration of possible outcomes of forecast-based early action 24 5 Acronyms ACAPS Assessment Capacities Project ARC African Risk Capacity ARDIS African and Asian Resilience in Disaster Insurance Scheme DFID UK Department

during the last week of the month was the weather truly unsettled, a period which included the first named storm of the season. The mean temperature was provisionally 0.5 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, with the north being rather milder but the south-east being near or just below average

. Elsewhere, however, fine weather is expected, with increasing sunshine and temperatures rising again in southern areas. Highs in the low 30s are likely to return for some southern locations. READ MORE: What are wet bulb temperatures and what they are used for? Weekend outlook: warm and mostly dry

meteorology. A familiar pattern returns If you’ve been enjoying the cooler conditions of late, brace yourself, change is on the way. The jet stream, which had dipped southwards and brought a spell of cooler, wetter weather, is now shifting. It’s arching north and dipping to the east of the UK, placing

that there is an increased chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers as our climate continues to change. UKCP Local projections show that climate change is projected to bring about a change in the seasonality of extremes, in particular heavy hourly rainfall intensity in the autumn. This will impact

in Surrey. That heatwave culminated in widespread thunderstorms, with frequent lightning and hail affecting parts of northern England and southern Scotland. A wet start to the week for the Northern Isles with coastal gales possible 🌧️ Blustery showers drifting into other northwestern regions Generally dry