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are, by definition, rare, which means we have relatively few observations, especially in light of our changing climate. This means it is difficult to estimate the current chances of extreme weather and climate events. To overcome this, the CSSP China project pioneered a technique using the Met

, conditions remain showery and breezy. Temperatures will be mostly below normal across the country. Friday, expect clear or sunny spells with showers, some of which may be heavy and could merge into longer spells of rain. Winds will be light to moderate, but fresh to strong along southern coasts

Although there will be a bit of a split in the weather over the coming days, much of England and Wales will see bright and dry conditions with sunny spells. Temperatures will reach the mid 20˚Cs across the south where it will feel quite warm with light winds. Further north, Scotland, Northern

& drizzle will occur bringing the visibility down to 7km. • Isolated areas of heavier rain and/or drizzle near to the fronts in the north of the zone are expected – this heavier rain is expected to reduce the visibility down to 3500m in these areas. • Isolated areas of mist and light drizzle

. Cloud and outbreaks of rain will move across England and Wales during the morning, clearing to leave sunny spells and showers later, some of which may be heavy locally. Winds will be light to moderate, but locally fresh to strong around some coasts. Temperatures will be near normal, though it may feel

for an environmental consultancy as a GIS and Business Developer Consultant, delivering a variety of projects for national government, regulatory and corporate clients. Victoria has held several postdoctoral research positions at Birmingham and Oxford University. Projects worked on include assessing snow and light

 singled out as a reason for being caught out by severe weather. With much of the country likely to be changing their habits in light of restrictions on international travel, the Met Office’s WeatherReady initiative aims to help people make the most of the summer weather, while also taking small

forecast information to the interests of different customer groups which can include for example, the general public, emergency responders or airlines. To ensure that people and critical operations will not be put at risk by unexpected weather, the Met Office Operations Centre operates round

fell across Cumbria and parts of Derbyshire in early December. A major incident was declared in Cumbria with a large number of roads closed including the M6 for a time. Several rest centres were opened to accommodate stranded travellers and residents without power. Storms Elin and Fergus brought wet

temperature profiles. In the tropics and sub-tropics, convection has more realistic structure and spurious light rain/drizzle is reduced. Improvements in the representation of warm rain microphysics results in a reduction in the amount of spurious light drizzle that is especially notable