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tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 19, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 14 to 24. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 14.  The most likely number of hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic

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and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and Global Data and Analysis Centres, as well as Regional Climate Centres, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW), the Global Cryosphere Watch and the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change services as well as many United Nations partners. Key

There is more than a 40% chance that the annual average global temperature in at least one of the next five years will temporarily reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

of at least one year in the five-year period becoming the warmest on record, dislodging 2016 from the top ranking. Other highlights from the update include the likelihood of high-latitude regions and the Sahel – the region of Africa immediately south of the Sahara desert - becoming wetter

be interpreted cautiously because it is highly probable that one or more September days prior to 1960 may have been warmer. In particular, on 1 September 1906 the temperature exceeded 32°C as far as northern Scotland with (32.2°C at Gordon Castle, Moray) and 32 to 33°C widely across England

This website allows you to explore how different scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change could change the geography of food insecurity in developing and least-developed countries. By altering the levels of future global greenhouse gas emissions

Castle (Moray), with 35.6 °C at Bawtry, South Yorkshire on the 2nd being the UK record; this heatwave also set the Scotland record of 32.2 °C at Gordon Castle and the Northern Ireland record of 27.8 °C at Armagh. The 1906 event would appear to be the most notable September heatwave in observational

 droughts, with droughts at least as severe as seen in 2010 increasing by 146%, at a 4.0°C level of global warming and 86% more frequent by 2.0°C.  Lead author Dr Helen Hanlon, said: “Our research clearly shows that the more we warm the planet through human-induced climate change, the more severe weather

A new study, led by the UK Met Office, has revealed a very strong likelihood that one of the next five years will be the warmest on record globally, beating the current record year of 2016.   The chance of at least one of the next five year’s exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is now about

resulted in a number of other governments looking on with interest. Work on UKCP18 was initiated while I was the director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, so I look on with great pride and satisfaction as it enters the final stages. Release of the different products will take place at different