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) showing an increased chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers along with an increase in the frequency and intensity of extremes. This is seen in the Probabilistic (25km), Global (60km), Regional (12km) and Local (2.2km) projections.” www.metoffice.gov.uk www.metoffice.gov.uk 11
. The Atlantic depressions are more vigorous in autumn and winter and most of the rain which falls in those seasons in the south west is from this source. In summer, convection caused by solar surface heating sometimes forms shower clouds and a large proportion of rainfall falls from showers
., 2022) and with these 30 grouped together into 8 patterns (McSweeney & Thornton, 2020). Both approaches find that the weather types compare well with recent observations in the recent climate. Both also project a tendency towards more wet and unsettled conditions over the UK in winter under a high
. But in industries such as transport, renewable energy and food security, people need to look further ahead to what the next season, few years or even decades, could hold. Over the past four years, the Met Office has been coordinating a ground-breaking project to improve climate services in Europe: EUPORIAS. 11
to determine which hazard to prioritise. Hazards may operate on different timescales, such as a seasonal timescale (severe wet season, severe winter, extended heat wave), a monthly timescale (severe wet period, cold, hot period), a weekly timescale (typhoons, hurricanes), a daily timescale
. These are available from their respective websites. The heatwave ‘season’ is defined as 1st June to 15th September; although the arrangements described in this section would equally apply outside of these dates were the requisite high temperatures to occur. Heatwave planning forecast The heatwave planning
for Meteorology UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA) United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) World Food Programme (WFP) World
and then continually updated through the course of the recovery, which can last for weeks, months or even years. Finally, we need to make our communities and infrastructure more resilient to high impact weather. To do so requires assessment of worst-case scenarios: how bad could it be? The wet winter of 2013
the island can be accessed. “There’s a huge population of puffins on Skerry,” explains James. “We can only visit in autumn once the breeding season is over, and before the winter weather gets too bad.” Skerry is so remote that it can only be reached by helicopter. “Once we’re there we have five
sunshine hours by mid-month. Reference climatology used for calculating anomalies is the period 1991-2020 unless otherwise stated. Weather impacts • The sixth named storm of the season, Storm Floris, brought heavy rain and strong winds to northern Scotland on the 4th • Wildfires in North Yorkshire
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