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are, by definition, rare, which means we have relatively few observations, especially in light of our changing climate. This means it is difficult to estimate the current chances of extreme weather and climate events. To overcome this, the CSSP China project pioneered a technique using the Met

Although there will be a bit of a split in the weather over the coming days, much of England and Wales will see bright and dry conditions with sunny spells. Temperatures will reach the mid 20˚Cs across the south where it will feel quite warm with light winds. Further north, Scotland, Northern

and Saturday, some of which could be thundery in nature. Both wind and showers are expected to ease on Sunday.   Further south, there will be plenty of dry and fine weather around in the weekend, with temperatures likely to peak at around 24C in the southeast. Some light showers are possible

in 17 people being killed along with 4 horses. The thunderstorms across South East England slowly died away during the evening and here it turned rather misty. Winds generally were light and from the southeast. Temperatures were above the late May average generally and very warm, locally hot

conditions. There will be spells of cloud and light rain at times in the north west as weak fronts move in but they will quickly dissolve. Temperatures will gradually rise through the week, with an expected high of 24°C, possibly 25°C, by Thursday. These temperature highs are expected to be in parts

, conditions remain showery and breezy. Temperatures will be mostly below normal across the country. Friday, expect clear or sunny spells with showers, some of which may be heavy and could merge into longer spells of rain. Winds will be light to moderate, but fresh to strong along southern coasts

forecast information to the interests of different customer groups which can include for example, the general public, emergency responders or airlines. To ensure that people and critical operations will not be put at risk by unexpected weather, the Met Office Operations Centre operates round

). The south-west had early mist or fog on the 3rd, and some areas began with patchy light rain or showers, lasting into the afternoon in places, then it became brighter but the far north had a few isolated showers later. Scattered showers in the north and the south-west died away during the 4th, leaving all

the afternoon. Coldest across southern counties early on the 18th, then bright or sunny for many, but cloudier in the north-west with patchy light rain arriving. Fog covered central and eastern areas first thing on the 19th, which was also frosty in some places, then it was generally sunny, but the far south

& drizzle will occur bringing the visibility down to 7km. • Isolated areas of heavier rain and/or drizzle near to the fronts in the north of the zone are expected – this heavier rain is expected to reduce the visibility down to 3500m in these areas. • Isolated areas of mist and light drizzle