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• PowerPoint Presentation

  analysis vs observations JJA New 4.4 km – 9km High resolution data assimilation New + analysis 4.4 km – 9km 4.4 km improved against observations Still some degradation in the tropics Z. Zaplotnik, J. Schröttle, E. Orlandi and J. Bandeiras A more detailed look… Convection Too much light precipitation

• NCIC Monthly Summary

  southern areas by midday on the 2nd, with sunshine for most parts but isolated showers over Cumbria. The 3rd was cloudier, with rain, mostly light and patchy, for northern and central parts. Again it was generally cloudy on the 4th, with local mist or fog patches first thing, and rain, heavy at times

• africa-climate-outlook---january-2026.pdf

  and the Bureau of Metrology in Australia (BoM) state that La Niña is currently present. According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, the La Niña event will come to an end over the coming months. For February–April, the likelihood of returning

• PowerPoint Presentation

  -December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña event while the likelihood of ENSO remaining neutral is around 40 %. In contrast, output from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology strongly favours (> 90% chance) ENSO-neutral for the remainder of 2025

• PowerPoint Presentation

  in light and dark blue indicate values below the 20th (Cool) and 10th (Cold) percentile, with respect to the 1981-2010 climatology. The data used in this map are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. Climate Outlook Africa: October to July Current Status 8 Current Status – Precipitation percentiles

• PowerPoint Presentation

  and the 100th percentile being the warmest in the 1981-2010 climatology. Orange and red shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark blue indicate values below the 20th (Cool) and 10th (Cold) percentile, with respect

• PowerPoint Presentation

  to be neutral with the conditions not yet being met for a La Niña event to be declared. In contrast, according to the Climate Prediction Centre, La Niña conditions are present with a La Niña Advisory issued. All indices are currently negative and point to La Niña conditions with some atmospheric

• PowerPoint Presentation

  , with the 0th percentile being the coolest and the 100th percentile being the warmest in the 1981-2010 climatology. Orange and red shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark blue indicate values below the 20th (Cool) and 10th

• africa-climate-outlook---january-2026pdf

  and the Bureau of Metrology in Australia (BoM) state that La Niña is currently present. According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, the La Niña event will come to an end over the coming months. For February–April, the likelihood of returning

• Met Office daily weather: Unsettled with heavy rain and thunderstorms

  .  Later in the day, another band of potentially heavy rain is expected to move into southern and southwestern regions. Winds will generally remain light, though breezy conditions may develop towards the far southwest. ⚠️⚠️ Amber weather warning issued ⚠️⚠️ Torrential, thundery rain across parts