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general trends of climate changes in the 21 st century are similar to UKCP09, with a move towards warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. However, natural variations mean that some cold winters, some dry winters, some cool summers and some wet summers will still occur. • At 2°C of global mean

) was the second storm of the 2017-2018 winter season, following Storm Aileen on 12 to 13 September. The strongest winds were around Irish Sea coasts, particularly west Wales, with gusts of 60 to 70 Kt or higher in exposed coastal locations. Impacts The most severe impacts were across the Republic of Ireland

the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK, with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas

to the exceptional rainfall. We anticipated a wet, stormy start to winter in our three-month outlooks, associated with the strong El Niño and other factors. “However, just as with the stormy winter of two years ago, all the evidence from fundamental physics, and our understanding of our weather systems

to be dominated by a mix of high- and low-pressure systems, with frosty nights during ridges of high pressure and milder conditions when weather systems move through. The trend is for occasional spells of rain, temperatures closer to average, and a mixture of dry and wet days. Looking ahead: Sudden

are also expected to strengthen, particularly in exposed north‑western areas. While there remains some uncertainty in the finer detail, the overall signal points towards a wet and windy Easter weekend, a reminder that this time of year can deliver a wide range of weather. The Easter weather station

Climate Projections (UKCP) indicate that on average, summers will become hotter. Met Office UKCP Local projections indicate that hot spells will become more frequent in our future climate, particularly over the south-east of the UK, with temperatures projected to rise in all seasons. Heavy rainfall

the possibility of wet and windy weather in the second half of the week commencing 20 January, which obviously came to pass. As is usually the case, forecast confidence increased closer to the time, which resulted in further Met Office communications, the naming of the system and ultimately

. For example, while it’s not possible to predict the exact weather on a particular day months ahead, forecasters can estimate the probability of certain conditions, such as a wetter-than-average season or an increased risk of heatwaves. READ MORE: How the Met Office utilises Big Data in its operations

available ahead of the 2019 rainy season. 2) Risk of extreme years within the 2-5 year period. A small amount of additional diagnostic work could provide supporting diagnostic information on the risk of very dry / very wet years within a 2-5 year period, based on the predicted 2-5 year tercile