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) was the second storm of the 2017-2018 winter season, following Storm Aileen on 12 to 13 September. The strongest winds were around Irish Sea coasts, particularly west Wales, with gusts of 60 to 70 Kt or higher in exposed coastal locations. Impacts The most severe impacts were across the Republic of Ireland

to be dominated by a mix of high- and low-pressure systems, with frosty nights during ridges of high pressure and milder conditions when weather systems move through. The trend is for occasional spells of rain, temperatures closer to average, and a mixture of dry and wet days. Looking ahead: Sudden

general trends of climate changes in the 21 st century are similar to UKCP09, with a move towards warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. However, natural variations mean that some cold winters, some dry winters, some cool summers and some wet summers will still occur. • At 2°C of global mean

and eastern England being rather wet. For example, Kent saw 185% of its average rainfall while West Lothian saw just 59%. At least one weather station in Kent (East Malling) reported more than twice its normal rainfall. Storm Noa on 12 April 2023 was the second named storm of the 2022/2023 storm

rainfall on the windward slopes and creating waving effects on the lee side. For those planning to head out for bonfire celebrations, the timing and location will be key. A band of rain is expected to move across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland during the evening, making for a wet start in those

and sector-focused competition over depleting water resources. Food security Agricultural production is constrained by a lack of both water and arable land, with some regions constrained by temperature as well. By the 2050s, there is high confidence that warming will occur over all seasons, with increases

of the wet season in semiarid tropical climates of western Africa. Int J Climatol 21:1251– 1262 Sijikumar S, Roucou P, Fontaine B (2006) Monsoon onset over Sudan- Sahel: simulation by the regional scale model MM5. Geophys Res Lett 33: L03814. doi:10.1029/2005GL024819 Sivakumar MVK (1988) Predicting

to less frequent, more extreme rainfall and therefore the seasonal mean may decrease while daily extreme values may stay similar to the baseline or increase. • See UKCP Probabilistic Extremes report and factsheet for more details. • Widespread wet bias in Europe and UK region in winter. Biases vary

Despite cold weather closing out autumn, it has been a mild season overall, especially across the southern half of the UK.

Wales this was the warmest autumn on record, marginally warmer than 2011 and 2006. Autumn rainfall It has been a wet autumn across the UK, except for western Scotland, with parts of eastern Scotland, north-east and eastern England, southern England and the east of Northern Ireland receiving over 150

in percentages. The outlook uses 3 categories, linked to previous observed UK conditions, for possible UK temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the coming season: COLD, NEAR AVERAGE and MILD for temperature WET, NEAR AVERAGE and DRY for precipitation CALM, NEAR AVERAGE and WINDY for wind speed