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that is being li ed and cooled below its dew point. Rainfall tends to be associated with Atlantic depressions or with convection. The Atlantic Lows are more vigorous in autumn and winter and bring most of the rain that falls in these seasons. In summer, convection caused by solar surface heating sometimes forms
and the Met Office predicts there could be an increased water requirement for maize irrigation by the middle of the century which will increase the risk of extreme water shortages in the NFR (Xu et al. 2019). These water shortages are projected to occur mid-season, an important developmental time
for a wet start in those areas. However, much of England and Wales, and possibly parts of Northern Ireland, may see the rain clear in time for the evening festivities. While a few showers are possible, a good part of England is likely to remain dry through the evening. READ MORE: Met Office week ahead
of the wet season in semiarid tropical climates of western Africa. Int J Climatol 21:1251– 1262 Sijikumar S, Roucou P, Fontaine B (2006) Monsoon onset over Sudan- Sahel: simulation by the regional scale model MM5. Geophys Res Lett 33: L03814. doi:10.1029/2005GL024819 Sivakumar MVK (1988) Predicting
is not sufficient to assess model projections. Direct investigation of the mechanisms for future precipitation change is also important, and existing efforts in this area have generated valuable hypothesis about the potential drivers of wet and dry responses [e.g., Biasutti et al., 2008, 2009; Monerie et al
in percentages. The outlook uses 3 categories, linked to previous observed UK conditions, for possible UK temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the coming season: COLD, NEAR AVERAGE and MILD for temperature WET, NEAR AVERAGE and DRY for precipitation CALM, NEAR AVERAGE and WINDY for wind speed
. There was plenty of settled weather, with only limited amounts of rainfall, especially in the south. Only during the last week of the month was the weather truly unsettled, a period which included the first named storm of the season. The mean temperature was provisionally 0.5 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term
in these seasons. In summer, convection caused by solar surface heating sometimes forms shower clouds and a large proportion of rain falls from showers and thunderstorms then. The additional heat from the London urban area can encourage such shower development in summer. A further factor that greatly affects
that within these mean changes cold, dry winters and wet summers like 2012 are still possible but with declining likelihood. Research into the likelihood of extreme seasons under the two scenarios indicate that by the 2040s a summer as hot as the 2003 European heatwave will be very common under both
pressure retuning, bringing wetter and windier conditions from the west ☔ pic.twitter.com/NTdjOFFfEm — Met Office (@metoffice) October 14, 2025 Meteorologists use the concept of planetary-scale “waves” in the jet stream to describe the meandering path of high and low-pressure systems around the globe
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