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the following model simulations in this analysis (more details on specific models included are available in Appendix B): • Thirty Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations from the World Climate Research Project (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012), used

and January combined and (bottom) December. Winter of 2010/11 shown as red stars. December/January 2010/11 was the thirty-fourth coldest December/January in the record and December was the second coldest December in the record. Fig. 15. Attributable change in probability (P1/P0) of (top) December/January