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across Cumbria in the opening days which may have contributed to a landslide that caused the derailment of a Glasgow to London service at Shap early on the 3rd. The next day came reports of several road closures in west Cumbria due to surface water flooding. Parts of Wales were also notably wet during

to 2100 under all emission pathways. 4.1 The pattern of sea level rise is not uniform across the UK. Sea level rise is less in the north and more in the south, this is mainly due to the movement of land, up and down. © Crown copyright 2019, Met Office Page 8 4.2 For London, sea level rise by the end

observations of the weather in the London area and is credited with having first discovered the concept of the urban heat island, where night time temperatures in the cities do not fall as low as those in the countryside. He attributed this to the numbers of coal fires burning in close proximity

Increase in tropical cyclone risk to coastal regions Also known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the northwest Pacific, tropical cyclones have maximum wind speeds of at least 74 miles per hour and can be up to 1000 kilometres in diameter. Research by Imperial College London as part

, Liverpool, UK 2 King’s College, London, UK 3 University of Southampton, UK www.metoffice.gov.uk Contents Summary ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 3 1.1

College, London, UK 3 University of Southampton, UK www.metoffice.gov.uk Contents Summary ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 3 1.1 Background

England, and over 30°C in eastern England. Monday is expected to be the hottest day of this spell, with highs of 32-34°C possible in southeast England, including London and Cambridge. Scotland and Northern Ireland will also feel warmer than on Sunday as the warm air spreads further north. However

a general gradual decline, with London illustrating this trend clearly: a notable drop for the cold, sunny start on Saturday, a brief recovery, and then a slow easing downward through the following week. Looking further ahead, even beyond the ten‑day window, there are early indications that high

, there are no signs of a prolonged mild spell, as colder air remains close to the north of the UK. The temperature pattern will be up and down, with London seeing a sharp rise followed by a gradual drop, and Edinburgh experiencing less dramatic changes but still some fluctuations. In summary

for the seasonal mean temperature • Medians increases with rarity, because 1-in-100 year events are by construction higher than 1-in-20 or 1-in-50 year events • Uncertainty ranges in return level also increase slightly with return period Figure 1 A comparison of summer daily maximum temperature for a London