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in percentages. The outlook uses 3 categories, linked to previous observed UK conditions, for possible UK temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the coming season: COLD, NEAR AVERAGE and MILD for temperature WET, NEAR AVERAGE and DRY for precipitation CALM, NEAR AVERAGE and WINDY for wind speed

in these seasons. In summer, convection caused by solar surface heating sometimes forms shower clouds and a large proportion of rain falls from showers and thunderstorms then. The additional heat from the London urban area can encourage such shower development in summer. A further factor that greatly affects

that within these mean changes cold, dry winters and wet summers like 2012 are still possible but with declining likelihood. Research into the likelihood of extreme seasons under the two scenarios indicate that by the 2040s a summer as hot as the 2003 European heatwave will be very common under both

and the Met Office predicts there could be an increased water requirement for maize irrigation by the middle of the century which will increase the risk of extreme water shortages in the NFR (Xu et al. 2019). These water shortages are projected to occur mid-season, an important developmental time

the largest temperature change over a single day ever recorded in the United States. READ MORE: What role does convection play in weather? In the UK, foehn events are most commonly observed in the Scottish Highlands. Moist westerly winds from the Atlantic are forced over the mountains, bringing wet weather

The seasons are changing and so is the weather, with wind and rain for much of the UK in the coming days.

and for anyone looking for rain in the forecast there is good news. High pressure - which we have become quite accustomed to over the summer - will stay with us for a little longer, but by the weekend conditions will be changing as low-pressure will take the lead for several days, bringing wet and windy

Preliminary statistics show that the 2016/17 winter has been dry and mild compared to the long-term average. Meanwhile, early February statistics show a milder than average month to end the season.

on record for Scotland and the fifth mildest winter for Northern Ireland. The UK as a whole has seen the ninth mildest winter on record. Interestingly the winters of 2013/14 and 2015/16 were both milder than this winter; however the key difference is that those winters were also very wet and often

began with a mix of rain and wintry showers, particularly affecting northern and western regions. Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the season, brought significant disruption from the 6th to the 8th, with heavy rain and severe gales, especially in coastal areas of Wales and southwest England

began with a mix of rain and wintry showers, particularly affecting northern and western regions. Storm Darragh, the fourth named storm of the season, brought significant disruption from the 6th to the 8th, with heavy rain and severe gales, especially in coastal areas of Wales and southwest England

during the last week of the month was the weather truly unsettled, a period which included the first named storm of the season. The mean temperature was provisionally 0.5 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, with the north being rather milder but the south-east being near or just below average