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international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More Likely Climate Outlook Africa: November to August Overview 5 Global Outlook - Rainfall Outlook: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – Whilst oceanic indicators, including sea surface temperatures

Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) stating that: “There is a ~60% chance of a transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2021 (April-June).” Despite this trend La Niña will continue to be a dominant driver of rainfall patterns, especially in the tropics

PWS International Products Consultation Executive Summary Although this was a fairly light touch consultation due to limited Secretariat resources, the evidence in this report is enough to be able to give some broad conclusions to the questions posed: 1. Are the current international services

shading represent values above the 80th (Warm) and 90th (Hot) percentile, respectively; regions shaded in light and dark blue indicate values below the 20th (Cool) and 10th (Cold) percentile, with respect to the 1981-2010 climatology. The data used in this map are from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center

the north, and more cloud and rain spreading east across southern counties during the afternoon. 29th to 31st Many northern, central and eastern areas began with fog on the 29th, slow to clear in places, and the day was cloudy, with a few showers over the north, and persistent but mainly light rain

, with patchy rain in some southern areas, and rain into the north later. The 13th was cloudy with light showers across the south, but brighter further north. The 14th was mostly cloudy for the Midlands and north, with patchy rain, but drier and brighter over southern areas. The 15th was cloudy for most

. Central and eastern areas started sunny on the 11th, with more cloud elsewhere and blustery showery rain pushing into the west. After a sunny start in central areas on the 12th, most areas were cloudy, with patchy rain in some southern areas, and rain into the north later. The 13th was cloudy with light

Glamorgan); it was also cool with temperatures not exceeding 14.5 °C at Lake Vyrnwy (Powys). The 31st was generally cloudy with patchy light rain or scattered showers. Scotland diary of highlights The first part of the month was showery and unsettled, though with some warm days to start with. Towards

months there is ~95% chance of La Niña continuing. The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) states that: “La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during

Tuesday will see patchy light rain across the south this morning, which will become restricted to the far south later in the afternoon. Elsewhere, increasing amount of sunshine will develop throughout the day, with temperatures generally up from recent days, likely peaking around 24°C in eastern