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formed part of a turbulent spell of wet and windy weather for the UK, associated with a powerful jet stream. Storms Dudley and Franklin also brought significant weather impacts. Impacts Storm Eunice brought major weather impacts. Four people died in the UK and Ireland as a result of falling trees. Over

and late response in the case of droughts and cyclones 17 Figure 5 Illustration of possible outcomes of forecast-based early action 24 5 Acronyms ACAPS Assessment Capacities Project ARC African Risk Capacity ARDIS African and Asian Resilience in Disaster Insurance Scheme DFID UK Department

estimates of the forecast errors on a pre-defined (determined by having adequate observation sampling) regular grid, while the NMC estimates are made on the model grid. We calculate the covariance information on each day and accumulate the information over seasons (with 2-years’ worth of data as described

with climate during the season. Although it was providing valuable scientific insight and remained popular with its observers, retirement of the last coordinator initiated closure of the network. After a gap of 50 years, the UK Phenology Network was resurrected in 1998 by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology

and Schär, 2017), cold, hot, dry or wet seasonal extremes (e.g. Sexton and Harris, 2015) or multi-season droughts (e.g. Burke and Brown, 2010), can also be obtained. In UKCP, users can obtain projections of future extremes for the UK or other regions from UK Global (a set of 28 climate model simulations

different model variants that achieve this. These simulations will form our best estimate of the future range of changes in the worldwide patterns of temperature, moisture and atmospheric circulation that in turn alter the frequency and intensity of the extreme hot, cold, wet or dry seasons

the 30-year mean projections of UKCP09. This approach enables the projections to be expressed in terms of the extreme hot, cold, wet or dry seasons that impact society, providing a better idea of adaptation needs. The methods used to produce these new projections are based on the methodology developed

is generally grown in uplands and sub- humid areas (Gari, 2002). Optimum millet growing temperature is 30C Wheat is generally cultivated as a winter rainfed crop in the highlands of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania (Negassa et al. 2012 ). Wheat is a cool season crop and increasing

early on in the formation of the service development teams that all users were feeding back that seasonal outlooks in East Africa were issued too late to support meaningful action and in addition, after the outlook had been issued, monthly updates of the progress of the season were required. Through

for hours, days, weeks, seasons and even years ahead. Operating as part of an international network to collect weather data, we also partner with research institutes worldwide to develop the very latest techniques. We strive to ensure that you always have the very best advice in print, on air, and via