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to be much wetter over the lake (biases as large as 8 mm/day with respect to CPC- FEWS). The discrepancy between the amount of rain in the model and in observations is particularly pronounced in the late rainfall season (SON), but the bias is also present in the off-peak seasons. The bias is present

Climate trends and risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region Current climate for zones in the MENA region Future climate risks by the 2050s in the MENA region Food security by 2050s Water security by 2050s Atlantic Ocean Mediterranean Sea Shorter growing seasons in many areas

Rainfall in the first half of September: A wet start, but the deficit remains Author: Press Office 17 September 2025 September has begun with a notable shift in the UK’s weather pattern, delivering widespread rainfall across much of the country. For many regions, the first two weeks have brought rainfall

does not change the UKCP18 headline message of a greater chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers across the UK in future (Murphy et al, 2018). For 2061-80, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the update suggests winters will be warmer by 3.3°C (2.0-3.5°C) 2

with statistical @ Crown copyright 2020 1 predictions from pre-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between

in the south Asian summer monsoon and in parts of the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean, with wet biases over the Indonesian warm pool. In the Indian ocean sector, wet biases occur off the coast of Madagascar in DJF (in the region associated with the southern lobe of the Indian Ocean dipole (Behera

reduces with increasing latitude as the ITCZ reaches its maximum northerly extent. The most northern areas of Sudan receive virtually no rainfall. Wet season rainfall totals are highly variable from year-to-year due to large-scale dynamics in the climate system, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation

The Met Office’s UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) suggest that by the 2050s, the UK will experience warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. This shift will inevitably have profound implications for sport. For example, projections show that the London Marathon could see increases of up to 1.7

regarded as simple, not requiring too much detailed weather forecast information. Ken Mylne is an ensemble forecasting expert. He said: “Even a simple decision like ‘should I take an umbrella tomorrow’ will depend on how much you’re concerned about getting wet.  “If you are dressed up for an important

exceptionally wet and windy weather to the UK, particularly south Wales and south-west England. A few days later, the third named storm of the season, Storm Conall, brushed along the southern coast of England, bringing heavy rainfall. Although November started with mild temperatures, cold spells