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Is the UK winter going as forecast?

occurring warming of the Pacific Ocean, releases heat into the atmosphere, creating warmer and wetter air which can trigger extreme weather around the globe, resulting in impacts such as the ongoing drought in the Amazon.   As we are all aware, so far this winter, the UK, has had a wet and stormy

DIGITAL VERSION

Climate trends and risks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region Current climate for zones in the MENA region Future climate risks by the 2050s in the MENA region Food security by 2050s Water security by 2050s Atlantic Ocean Mediterranean Sea Shorter growing seasons in many areas

Assembling our capability for ensemble weather forecasting

regarded as simple, not requiring too much detailed weather forecast information. Ken Mylne is an ensemble forecasting expert. He said: “Even a simple decision like ‘should I take an umbrella tomorrow’ will depend on how much you’re concerned about getting wet.  “If you are dressed up for an important

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Increasing influence of climate change on UK climate

the last decade Winter and Spring have seen 13% more sunshine3 Temperatures have been warmer by 0.9 °C3 Summers have been 13% wetter and winters have been 12% wetter3 Climate statistics in 2019 4 high temperature records Above average susnhine hours3 One of the least snowy years on record4 6 named storms5

Microsoft Word - NEB_upd_2021

with statistical @ Crown copyright 2020 1 predictions from pre-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between

TerraFIRMA: Advancing climate change mitigation for a sustainable future

of unprecedented wildfires, such as those seen in Canada and parts of Amazonia last year.  The State of Wildfires report is the first edition of a new systematic annual review of extreme wildfires of the 2023-2024 fire season. The report explains their causes and assesses whether events could have

ukcp18_local_update_faq.pdf

does not change the UKCP18 headline message of a greater chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers across the UK in future (Murphy et al, 2018). For 2061-80, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the update suggests winters will be warmer by 3.3°C (2.0-3.5°C) 2

food_security_climate_change_assessment_sudan.pdf

reduces with increasing latitude as the ITCZ reaches its maximum northerly extent. The most northern areas of Sudan receive virtually no rainfall. Wet season rainfall totals are highly variable from year-to-year due to large-scale dynamics in the climate system, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation

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