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centred closer to the UK. • Dry conditions more likely than wet and a greater likelihood of a reduction in the frequency of rain-bearing systems and storms. • Greater likelihood of colder conditions - with chances of a cold season being greater than a mild one, impacts from the wintry weather are more

that within these mean changes cold, dry winters and wet summers like 2012 are still possible but with declining likelihood. Research into the likelihood of extreme seasons under the two scenarios indicate that by the 2040s a summer as hot as the 2003 European heatwave will be very common under both

in percentages. The outlook uses 3 categories, linked to previous observed UK conditions, for possible UK temperature, precipitation and wind speed in the coming season: COLD, NEAR AVERAGE and MILD for temperature WET, NEAR AVERAGE and DRY for precipitation CALM, NEAR AVERAGE and WINDY for wind speed

of the wet season in semiarid tropical climates of western Africa. Int J Climatol 21:1251– 1262 Sijikumar S, Roucou P, Fontaine B (2006) Monsoon onset over Sudan- Sahel: simulation by the regional scale model MM5. Geophys Res Lett 33: L03814. doi:10.1029/2005GL024819 Sivakumar MVK (1988) Predicting

Assessing the use and benefits of weather and climate information services in Pakistan Final report for the Asia Resilience to a changing climate programme August 2022 3 Authors University of Leeds Marta Bruno Soares Linas Svolkinas Hellen Msemo Natalie Suckall ICIMOD Mandira Shrestha Mani Nepal

and the Met Office predicts there could be an increased water requirement for maize irrigation by the middle of the century which will increase the risk of extreme water shortages in the NFR (Xu et al. 2019). These water shortages are projected to occur mid-season, an important developmental time

during the last week of the month was the weather truly unsettled, a period which included the first named storm of the season. The mean temperature was provisionally 0.5 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, with the north being rather milder but the south-east being near or just below average

the infamous snowy / windy / cold / sunny winter of 2016-17? I just hoped it wouldn’t be another wet winter. Winter 2015-16 was the second wettest on record; 2013-14 was the wettest in a series extending back to 1910. Those seasons were dominated by a powerful jet stream over the Atlantic, spawning

All tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere season in 2018 are listed below including details of their start and end dates, lowest central pressure and maximum sustained wind (MSW).

Click on the name of the tropical cyclone to see a chart of the observed track and forecast tracks from the Met Office global model. Verification statistics on each tropical cyclone are available upon request from [email protected]. At the end of the season a verification report on the performance

, representing plausible high-consequence but low-likelihood future climates. The scenarios will define hot, cold, wet and dry extremes, windstorms, sea level rise and compound events. Find out more.    Climate Expo Conference - May 2021 Registration is now open for Climate Exp0, the first virtual