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• Microsoft Word - NEB_ll_2021

  1, is produced by combining output from the Met Office GloSea5 dynamical forecast system with statistical predictions based on pre-season sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The methodology is described in Part 2. The GloSea5 contribution to this forecast for FMAM

• uk_monthly_climate_summary_201809.pdf

  , with the arrival of the first two named storms of the 2018/19 season, Storm Ali on the 19th and Storm Bronagh on 20th to 21st, during a spell of very windy weather. There were no significant weather impacts prior to the arrival of Storm Ali on the 19th. Ex-tropical Storm Helene approached the UK on the 17th

• uk_monthly_climate_summary_201809pdf

  , with the arrival of the first two named storms of the 2018/19 season, Storm Ali on the 19th and Storm Bronagh on 20th to 21st, during a spell of very windy weather. There were no significant weather impacts prior to the arrival of Storm Ali on the 19th. Ex-tropical Storm Helene approached the UK on the 17th

• distillation_workshop_report.pdf

  to the surface the issues around communicating a ‘deterministic’ forecast. Many extension officers simply communicated that the season would be ‘wet’ and therefore the farmers should invest in crops. One particular group misunderstood the forecast, and farmers interpreted the 40% chance of ‘wet’ as being a 60

• distillation_workshop_reportpdf

  to the surface the issues around communicating a ‘deterministic’ forecast. Many extension officers simply communicated that the season would be ‘wet’ and therefore the farmers should invest in crops. One particular group misunderstood the forecast, and farmers interpreted the 40% chance of ‘wet’ as being a 60

• How Met Office forecasts supported the UK through a largely dry Spring

  as the sixth driest. However, the season had fewer instances of severe weather, with a subsequent decrease in warnings from previous months. So just how did the Met Office forecast develop and how was it used? We take a look… Light on warnings but not on some impacts Spring can typically be a season

• ukcp-cmip5-downscaling-report.pdf

  member of RCM-PPE that gives lower PSS values though). This is consistent with the large (and significant) cold and wet biases seen in the north of the UK in this model in this season (Figures 16 and 18). The nested CPM-MRI reduces the contribution to the total rainfall from days with high rainfall

• ukcp-cmip5-downscaling-reportpdf

  member of RCM-PPE that gives lower PSS values though). This is consistent with the large (and significant) cold and wet biases seen in the north of the UK in this model in this season (Figures 16 and 18). The nested CPM-MRI reduces the contribution to the total rainfall from days with high rainfall

• Cold with springtime wintry showers

  pressure passed over northern Scotland, bringing a spell of wet and windy weather. As this area of low pressure pulls away into the North Sea a push of cold arctic air will follow, leading to a marked change of weather for all parts with frosts becoming much more widespread overnight. Andy Page

• Microsoft Word - 2020_10_storm_aiden.docx

  Storm Aiden 31 October 2020 Storm Aiden 1 brought strong winds and heavy rain to the UK on 31 October 2020. The storm was part of a spell of turbulent, wet and very windy weather from late October to early November as a succession of deep Atlantic low pressure systems, associated with a powerful