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to be much wetter over the lake (biases as large as 8 mm/day with respect to CPC- FEWS). The discrepancy between the amount of rain in the model and in observations is particularly pronounced in the late rainfall season (SON), but the bias is also present in the off-peak seasons. The bias is present

Scottish Highlands. The course of mean monthly rainfall for 1981 - 2010 for 4 sites is shown below. Whilst rainfall is generally welldistributed through the year, there is a seasonal pattern. The driest season is spring whilst in the wetter upland areas there is an autumn/winter maximum, when

. These changes initially warmed the land over much of the Tropics and south and central Asia (see Fig. 5 top panel). The stronger warming over much of the Arctic and the initial reduction in the AMOC over the first 20 years suggests these are more complicated responses to that initial warming. It is also

results, referred to as the “new” projections. The maps presented here cover all four seasons, whereas those in Harris et al (2022) were mainly restricted to winter and summer. Here, we show projected changes for the RCP4.5 scenario during 2040-2059 as well as covering RCP8.5 responses for 2070-2089

unpredictable for a while now, the traditional seasons have changed, the wet season that was expected between February and March is no longer consistent. Livestock has been affected, with huge losses reported from the surrounding Kraals too. The animals do not fetch good prices at the market because

in the north-eastern part of the zone. • Inland (lake and river) fisheries and marine fisheries. Zone 3 is projected to be hotter on average, potentially wetter in the wet season, and potentially drier September-November. • High confidence for a warming of 1.5-4°C in annual mean temperature in the 2050s

about contingency measures. At the same time it will help them develop definite strategies for dealing with the more likely outcome of flooding seasons. Providing this type of probabilistic climate information requires a good understanding of the drivers of Asian monsoon and how they will change

with statistical @ Crown copyright 2020 1 predictions from pre-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between

reduces with increasing latitude as the ITCZ reaches its maximum northerly extent. The most northern areas of Sudan receive virtually no rainfall. Wet season rainfall totals are highly variable from year-to-year due to large-scale dynamics in the climate system, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation

   So far this summer, rainfall is tracking below average, with 72% of the of the whole summer’s long-term average recorded. At this point in the season, you’d expect 93%. There is of course much regional variation, with central, southern and eastern parts of England and Wales so far especially dry