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recharge, increase the likelihood that tolerance thresholds will be exceeded for certain crops and livestock, and combine with increases in rainfall variability and the length of dry periods to increase drought severity and irrigation demand. A projected delayed onset to the wet season may result

0.5ᵒC everywhere (with an average difference of 0.1ᵒC on a temperature increase of 2.5ᵒC for the British Isles as a whole). Fixing the graupel code error also significantly 2 impacts simulated present-day precipitation in winter, with the fixed-code run somewhat wetter although still not as wet

, Northern Ireland and northern England. Following this the temperatures returned to around average for many and below average for northern areas. Scotland in particular saw cooler than average temperatures in the second half of the month. On the 22nd, the 12th named storm of the season arrived: Storm Lilian

season total rainfall and seasonal average temperature have significant correlations with crop yield. With improved seasonal forecasts, there is potential to provide information on timescales relevant to agriculture and food security decisions, provided information is communicated in appropriate

-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between 23 January and 12 February which cover the period

of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation

the UK and they ‘block’ the passage of depressions. These anticyclones are most common in spring but can occur in all seasons — sometimes they can persist for a month or more and completely change the character of the weather. In summer, the blocking anticyclones can bring a prolonged spell of warm

: Autumn’s stormy spell and tropical influences Author: Press Office 1 October 2025 Are we in for a stormy spell on Friday night? How wet will it get before then? And could a tropical tango influence both of those things? This week’s Met Office deep dive explores a complex and dynamic weather pattern

Strong winds and flooding from storm Angus, November 2016 The first named storm of the 2016-2017 season brought some damaging winds to the south coast, accompanied by heavy rain causing flooding mainly across parts of south-west England. Gusts in exposed coastal locations reached 60 to 70 Kt (69

back to 1884. In a month that was wet and dull for many, people certainly didn’t feel that May was a record breaking month. But what could cause such a disconnect between perception and statistical reality? New analysis In new analysis, Met Office scientists have looked at what caused such anomalously