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-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between 23 January and 12 February which cover the period

Strong winds and flooding from storm Angus, November 2016 The first named storm of the 2016-2017 season brought some damaging winds to the south coast, accompanied by heavy rain causing flooding mainly across parts of south-west England. Gusts in exposed coastal locations reached 60 to 70 Kt (69

and southwest during the early hours, making for a potentially wet commute for those not still enjoying the summer holidays. Thursday and Friday continue the theme, with frequent showers, especially in the west, where it may feel like a wet day with shower after shower. Eastern areas may see fewer

. In the past few decades there has been an increase in annual average rainfall over the UK, particularly in Scotland for which the most recent decade (2008-2017) has been on average 4% wetter than 1981-2010 average. Summers in the UK, for the most recent decade (2008-2017), have been on average 17

. These changes initially warmed the land over much of the Tropics and south and central Asia (see Fig. 5 top panel). The stronger warming over much of the Arctic and the initial reduction in the AMOC over the first 20 years suggests these are more complicated responses to that initial warming. It is also

increase and the number of days exceeding 35°C (40°C) is projected to increase by 15-35 (0-5) days per year across the zone. • There is no decisive trend for whether Zone 5 will become wetter or drier, although there is evidence for a small delay to the start of the rainy season. Year-to-year

greenhouse gas emissions evolve. Weather will continue to vary in future, and may become more variable. Extreme daily rainfall events (1 in 20–years or rarer) in all seasons show increases in median estimates. There is an increased chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Sea level

was the fourth sunniest overall for the UK, with only three others since 1910 recording higher sunshine totals. Despite some wet spells, particularly in western Scotland and northwest England, rainfall overall was below average, and August was especially dry, with the UK receiving just 62% of its

proxy observations (see ‘What do the projections show in recent climate?’ for more details). In the recent climate (1980-2000), the Global PPE-15 and Regional RCM-12 models agree well with the proxy observations in terms of duration and magnitude of the summer dry season, but show a delay in season

-year anniversary of the project launch, on Saturday 26 March, these records have now been made publicly available in the official Met Office national record, extending it back 26 years to 1836. The volunteers’ efforts have revealed some new records for extreme dry and wet months across the UK