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Office deep dive: Autumn’s stormy spell and tropical influences Author: Press Office 1 October 2025 Are we in for a stormy spell on Friday night? How wet will it get before then? And could a tropical tango influence both of those things? This week’s Met Office deep dive explores a complex and dynamic

the UK and they ‘block’ the passage of depressions. These anticyclones are most common in spring but can occur in all seasons — sometimes they can persist for a month or more and completely change the character of the weather. In summer, the blocking anticyclones can bring a prolonged spell of warm

-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between 23 January and 12 February which cover the period

. In the past few decades there has been an increase in annual average rainfall over the UK, particularly in Scotland for which the most recent decade (2008-2017) has been on average 4% wetter than 1981-2010 average. Summers in the UK, for the most recent decade (2008-2017), have been on average 17

. These changes initially warmed the land over much of the Tropics and south and central Asia (see Fig. 5 top panel). The stronger warming over much of the Arctic and the initial reduction in the AMOC over the first 20 years suggests these are more complicated responses to that initial warming. It is also

two wetter days being 30 December 1900 (80.9mm) and 3 November 1931 (75.6mm). The charts for Oxfordshire compare the extreme rainfall at the end of September 2024 with that from storm Bert. Totals from Bert were less extreme but show the surplus rainfall compared to average for the season overall

greenhouse gas emissions evolve. Weather will continue to vary in future, and may become more variable. Extreme daily rainfall events (1 in 20–years or rarer) in all seasons show increases in median estimates. There is an increased chance of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Sea level

was the fourth sunniest overall for the UK, with only three others since 1910 recording higher sunshine totals. Despite some wet spells, particularly in western Scotland and northwest England, rainfall overall was below average, and August was especially dry, with the UK receiving just 62% of its

increase and the number of days exceeding 35°C (40°C) is projected to increase by 15-35 (0-5) days per year across the zone. • There is no decisive trend for whether Zone 5 will become wetter or drier, although there is evidence for a small delay to the start of the rainy season. Year-to-year

-year anniversary of the project launch, on Saturday 26 March, these records have now been made publicly available in the official Met Office national record, extending it back 26 years to 1836. The volunteers’ efforts have revealed some new records for extreme dry and wet months across the UK