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about contingency measures. At the same time it will help them develop definite strategies for dealing with the more likely outcome of flooding seasons. Providing this type of probabilistic climate information requires a good understanding of the drivers of Asian monsoon and how they will change

regional forcing is a strong component of simulated biases in tropical-extratropical interaction frequency Hart, Washington, Stratton (2018) GRL Result 2: Reduction of wet bias in CP4 ● Reduced October to January rainfall bias in CP4 and improved maintenance of east-west rainfall gradient Hart

the two seasons. In winter, the atmosphere is closer to saturation (with many more wet days). In summer, showers are triggered over the land by surface heating and use the local moisture sources more directly (whereas showers in winter may be more dependent on the advected moisture from the sea

. These changes initially warmed the land over much of the Tropics and south and central Asia (see Fig. 5 top panel). The stronger warming over much of the Arctic and the initial reduction in the AMOC over the first 20 years suggests these are more complicated responses to that initial warming. It is also

, making life very difficult especially to farmers. Longer droughts have manifested into unique crop and animal pests and diseases leading to low Agricultural production and food insecurity. Over the years, the cattle keepers are forced to migrate to safer wet land catchment areas or sell

on the atmosphere which, in turn can influence the weather here in the UK. Early in the winter La Niña can bring colder-than-average conditions, while later in winter it encourage warmer and wetter-than-average conditions. At the moment La Niña is in a weak phase and is likely to stay this way all winter

of the event for the best chance of optimal weather conditions? ‘How many people will attend if it rains or if it's wetter, hotter or colder than usual for the season? ‘What type of stage or ground surface will I need to guarantee the safety of participants, athletes and performers?’ Risk assessment to avoid

Storm Agnes, 27 to 28 September 2023 Storm Agnes was the first named storm of the 2023-2024 storm season (which begins in September). Agnes was an intense area of low pressure enhanced by energy from Tropical Storm Ophelia which affected the north-east coast of the US and caused serious flooding

–1990 baseline. Extreme rainfall events are becoming more common, contributing to record-breaking wet seasons like the winter of 2023–2024, which brought severe flooding to major river catchments. Sea levels around the UK have risen nearly 20 cm since 1900, with the pace accelerating due to warming

Translating forecasts into farming In East Africa, the rainy season dictates when farmers can sow, cultivate and harvest their crops. By making sure that farmers have access to accurate forecasts – and can understand them – WISER is helping to make farming more successful and more efficient across