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Powering up the forecasts East Africa has distinct wet and dry seasons, and accurately predicting the onset of its rains is vital for farms and businesses. Yet hydropower is equally reliant on accurate and timely forecasts – as an important climate partnership project recently demonstrated

Powering up the forecasts East Africa has distinct wet and dry seasons, and accurately predicting the onset of its rains is vital for farms and businesses. Yet hydropower is equally reliant on accurate and timely forecasts – as an important climate partnership project recently demonstrated

1, is produced by combining output from the Met Office GloSea5 dynamical forecast system with statistical predictions based on pre-season sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The methodology is described in Part 2. The GloSea5 contribution to this forecast for FMAM

is gained. A climate of a particular place is often described in seasonal periods (e.g. summer/ winter or rainy/ dry season) over the cycle of the year. The climate can also naturally vary between different years due to the process of Earth system cycles, especially those associated with large

of Responsibility (PAR), with an average of 17 TCs (12 typhoons) per year (Met-Office, 2014). About 7 TCs (5 typhoons) make landfall each year, typically towards the end of the main TC season. Factors influencing tropical cyclones in the region Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of at least 27°C are required

with partners in Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Southeast Asia. International collaboration is vital to addressing the issues presented by global weather and climate change. Outputs from the WCSSP programme support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) with world-leading weather

that falls in these seasons. In summer, convection caused by solar surface heating sometimes forms shower clouds and a large proportion of rain falls from showers and thunderstorms then. A further factor that greatly affects the rainfall distribution is altitude. Moist air that is forced to ascend hills

? Pollen production is heavily influenced by weather conditions. A warm and wet spring can lead to higher pollen production, while dry and breezy conditions help disperse it into the air. Conversely, a cold winter can delay the start of the pollen season by keeping plants dormant longer. Spring

to the surface the issues around communicating a ‘deterministic’ forecast. Many extension officers simply communicated that the season would be ‘wet’ and therefore the farmers should invest in crops. One particular group misunderstood the forecast, and farmers interpreted the 40% chance of ‘wet’ as being a 60

or more compared to 24 hours earlier, with double figures likely in many places. Alongside the warmth, wet and windy weather will return, particularly in the northwest where strong winds are expected Thursday night into Friday. Weekend outlook The weekend could bring some interesting developments