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of the year, in the decade (2008-2017) 3 , was on average 0.1 °C warmer than the 1981-2010 average and 0.8 °C warmer than the 1961-1990 average hottest day of 26 °C. 2.5 The most recent decade (2009-2018) has been on average 1% wetter than 1981-2010 and 5% wetter than 1961-1990 for the UK overall. 2.6

°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average hottest day of 26 °C. 2.5 The most recent decade (2009-2018) has been on average 1% wetter than 1981-2010 and 5% wetter than 1961-1990 for the UK overall. 2.6 Winters in the UK, for the most recent decade (2009-2018), have been on average 5% wetter than 1981- 2010

of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation

the UK and they ‘block’ the passage of depressions. These anticyclones are most common in spring but can occur in all seasons — sometimes they can persist for a month or more and completely change the character of the weather. In summer, the blocking anticyclones can bring a prolonged spell of warm

Scottish Highlands. The course of mean monthly rainfall for 1981 - 2010 for 4 sites is shown below. Whilst rainfall is generally welldistributed through the year, there is a seasonal pattern. The driest season is spring whilst in the wetter upland areas there is an autumn/winter maximum, when

-season sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The detailed methodology is described in Part 2. For this forecast the GloSea5 component comprised an aggregation of 42 GloSea5 predictions (ensemble members) initialised between 23 January and 12 February which cover the period

increase and the number of days exceeding 35°C (40°C) is projected to increase by 15-35 (0-5) days per year across the zone. • There is no decisive trend for whether Zone 5 will become wetter or drier, although there is evidence for a small delay to the start of the rainy season. Year-to-year

proxy observations (see ‘What do the projections show in recent climate?’ for more details). In the recent climate (1980-2000), the Global PPE-15 and Regional RCM-12 models agree well with the proxy observations in terms of duration and magnitude of the summer dry season, but show a delay in season

proxy observations (see ‘What do the projections show in recent climate?’ for more details). In the recent climate (1980-2000), the Global PPE-15 and Regional RCM-12 models agree well with the proxy observations in terms of duration and magnitude of the summer dry season, but show a delay in season

associated with an intense storm system passing over the UK, or a notably hot or cold day. Climate hazards relate to exceptional conditions over periods of months to seasons such as the exceptional wet winter of 2013/14, or summer droughts and heatwaves spanning several weeks or even months