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the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña event while the likelihood of ENSO remaining neutral is around 40 %. In contrast, output from the Australian Bureau
that both oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Niña conditions still remain across the equatorial Pacific. Both NOAA and the Bureau of Metrology in Australia (BoM) state that La Niña is currently present. According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres
to the Climate Prediction Centre, La Niña conditions are present with a La Niña Advisory issued. All indices are currently negative and point to La Niña conditions with some atmospheric response evident, with these conditions expected to remain over the coming few months, returning to neutral early
conditions taking hold in the August to October period (60% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below
% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More
. The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) states that: “La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).” For the next
for driving a LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) van (slide 6) around the virtual map to collect volcanic ash weather observations. It then needs to be driven back, with the weather data, to the Met Office supercomputer. Try to avoid the lava! 1. Tell the students to work through the booklet
, particularly in more sheltered spots. As the day progresses, cloud will increase from the west-southwest, bringing rain, some of it heavy, to southern regions by dusk. Northern areas will remain breezy, while winds elsewhere are generally light. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be close
on all coloured backgrounds. Size: width 120px, height 109px. Master logo for a light background Copy the following into the HTML on your web page where you would like the link to appear: <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk" target="_blank" title="opens in a new window"></a> Please use Master mono logo
, particularly in more sheltered spots. As the day progresses, cloud will increase from the west-southwest, bringing rain, some of it heavy, to southern regions by dusk. Northern areas will remain breezy, while winds elsewhere are generally light. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be close
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