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% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More

. There are some mixed signals from various modelling centres regarding the evolution of ENSO later this year. However, ENSO is most likely to remain neutral through the next three months. More information on typical impacts can be found here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc

. The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) states that: “La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).” For the next

conditions taking hold in the August to October period (60% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below

the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña event while the likelihood of ENSO remaining neutral is around 40 %. In contrast, output from the Australian Bureau

. However, through autumn the likelihood of La Niña developing increases with most modelling centres now favouring the chance of a short-lived La Niña event. Some cooling of sea surface temperatures is now being observed in the central Pacific. 3-Month Outlook October to December - Rainfall Should La Niña

observed in the UK were a result of the dust and smoke in the atmosphere scattering the light from the rising sun. Particles of this size scatter more radiation from the blue part of the spectrum so that more of the red/yellow wavelengths of light will reach the eyes of an observer on the ground. Some

rain PM many - KMD (142 characters) Expanded into normal speech, this means: Here is the Trans-Nzoia County weekly forecast for the period April 19 th to 25 th . Light rain is likely to fall in a few places within climatic zones 1 and 2 on Wednesday afternoon. But moderate rainfall is likely in many

Tuesday will bring a mix of weather across the UK. Much of England and Wales can expect a dry day with sunny spells, particularly away from the northern and western fringes. Here, cloud will be more prevalent, with outbreaks of mainly light rain and drizzle, especially in the north-west

of light rain may affect the south at times. As the day progresses, cloud will thicken and outbreaks of rain, heavy at times, will spread in from the southwest. There is a chance of embedded thunderstorms within the frontal bands. Winds will be light to moderate to begin with, perhaps strong