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Powering up the forecasts East Africa has distinct wet and dry seasons, and accurately predicting the onset of its rains is vital for farms and businesses. Yet hydropower is equally reliant on accurate and timely forecasts – as an important climate partnership project recently demonstrated

Powering up the forecasts East Africa has distinct wet and dry seasons, and accurately predicting the onset of its rains is vital for farms and businesses. Yet hydropower is equally reliant on accurate and timely forecasts – as an important climate partnership project recently demonstrated

1, is produced by combining output from the Met Office GloSea5 dynamical forecast system with statistical predictions based on pre-season sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific. The methodology is described in Part 2. The GloSea5 contribution to this forecast for FMAM

distribution to air frost. However, those places into which cold air can drain are particularly prone to frost. Examples include Altnaharra (Highland) with an average of 73 air frosts per year. In Northern Scotland the frost-free season is o en as little as 3 months, as shown by the average

will continue to be a feature of the forecast until the end of the week. By the end of the weekend there is a signal that we may see a shift in type away from the Arctic-dominated conditions with milder and wetter weather coming in from the Atlantic. This transition could bring the risk of significant

this air within the lowest part of the atmosphere, the troposphere. Therefore, the jet stream exists largely because of a difference in heat, which in the northern hemisphere means cold air on the northern side of the jet stream and warm air to the south.  The seasons also affect the position

The latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) indicate that the UK can expect hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters in the future as a result of our changing climate. This means it could be harder to regulate house temperatures across the seasons.  As well as better regulated temperatures

to the surface the issues around communicating a ‘deterministic’ forecast. Many extension officers simply communicated that the season would be ‘wet’ and therefore the farmers should invest in crops. One particular group misunderstood the forecast, and farmers interpreted the 40% chance of ‘wet’ as being a 60

wet summers from 2007, with only that of 2013 drier than average for the UK and four of these summers exceeding 130% of average for the UK overall. Winter Spring Summer Autumn Rainfall anomaly (%) 20% 20% 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Season

is a popular tourist destination all year round with its sub-tropical climate and little seasonal variation. A typical day in April is hot and sunny. The average daily maximum reaches 28.3 ºC alongside around 9 hours of daily sunshine. Sitting outside of the wet season April is one of the driest months