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% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More

conditions taking hold in the August to October period (60% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below

flooding. For much of southern England and South Wales it was a miserable day with overcast skies and heavy and persistent rain. Winds were light across Scotland and Northern Ireland and from the west across the far north but generally variable elsewhere. Winds across southern England and Wales were

from a few showers across North East Scotland it was generally dry across the United Kingdom with sunny spells, more particularly across southern areas. Winds were light across southern parts but a light to moderate, later fresh, west or south-westerly wind affected northern areas. Temperatures were

and Meteorology (DHM) and National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) in improving capacity and collaboration for communication of forecasts and risk prior to onset of the forthcoming monsoon season in mid-June. This was deemed particularly important in light of the COVID- 19

the south coast. Scotland and Northern Ireland had a fine evening although low cloud and drizzle continued to plague the east coast from time to time. Temperatures were about average generally in a light east or north-easterly breeze across most areas. However, winds across the far northwest of Scotland

and prolonged, especially over south-facing high ground in the northwest. To the east of this rain, conditions will remain dry with light winds, hazy or milky sunshine, and small amounts of lower cloud. Any early coastal or upslope low cloud is expected to quickly retreat and break up. Winds on Friday

bursts and a low risk of thunder. Conditions improve through the afternoon as the main area of rain clears southward, allowing for sunny spells to emerge. Further north, the day begins with plenty of sunshine and light winds following a chilly start. However, cloud and patchy light rain are expected

but with showers over the far south-west and near eastern coasts. The 5th began frosty in many central and southern counties, brightest in the south-east, but cloudier elsewhere, with patchy light rain mainly in the north-west. The 6th was windy, starting with patchy rain in many places, but a band

brighter. Patchy rain and drizzle in eastern parts on the 30th became more showery later; in western areas cloud broke up to allow warm sunshine, though enough cloud built up in the south-west during the afternoon for isolated light showers to develop. Wales diary of highlights The first part