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• Met Office daily weather: Largely settled as high pressure continues to dominate

  Thursday will begin with a few light showers, mainly across central and eastern England, but these will quickly fade, leaving most areas dry. Expect a mix of variable cloud and sunny spells throughout the day. It will feel breezy at times, particularly in the far southeast. After a chilly start

• Met Office daily weather: Spells of unsettled weather across the UK

  and northern areas for much of the day. The southeast will remain rather cloudy, with the odd showery outbreak of light rain and some areas of low cloud, particularly on south-facing coasts and hills. A moderate breeze will persist throughout. It will remain very mild, though temperatures will begin to fall

• Met Office daily weather: High pressure building through the week

  Scotland, Northern Ireland, and northern England. It will be breezy in north and west Scotland, with a few showers persisting. Outlook for Wednesday Wednesday will begin with the possibility of a few fog patches in the south, ahead of a band of mostly light rain and drizzle that will continue

• PowerPoint Presentation

  to August - Rainfall El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – Following the recent La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have returned to around normal with ENSO now in a neutral state. There are some mixed signals from various modelling centres regarding the evolution of ENSO later

• PowerPoint Presentation

  % likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More

• PowerPoint Presentation

  to the Climate Prediction Centre, La Niña conditions are present with a La Niña Advisory issued. All indices are currently negative and point to La Niña conditions with some atmospheric response evident, with these conditions expected to remain over the coming few months, returning to neutral early

• PowerPoint Presentation

  the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña event while the likelihood of ENSO remaining neutral is around 40 %. In contrast, output from the Australian Bureau

• PowerPoint Presentation

  conditions across the equatorial Pacific. Both NOAA and the Bureau of Metrology in Australia (BoM) have declared that La Niña is present. According to the latest forecasts, from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, La Niña is the most likely outcome over the next few months

• PowerPoint Presentation

  that both oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Niña conditions still remain across the equatorial Pacific. Both NOAA and the Bureau of Metrology in Australia (BoM) state that La Niña is currently present. According to the latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres

• PowerPoint Presentation

  conditions taking hold in the August to October period (60% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below