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to August - Rainfall El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – Following the recent La Niña, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have returned to around normal with ENSO now in a neutral state. There are some mixed signals from various modelling centres regarding the evolution of ENSO later
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from the week of wintry weather from 7th February. On 7th and 8th eastern coastal counties of England were affected by snow, particularly across the south-east. Some covid vaccination centres were closed in Suffolk and Essex due to snow, with road traffic collisions, fallen trees and dangerous driving
friends and family what you use the wind for. Some ideas could be drying our clothes, drying our hair, or you might like to go kitesurfing! So what is wind? Well, wind is air moving from one place to another. It can be a light breeze or a strong gale. We can’t see it, but we can feel and see how
Traffic Operations Centre (NTOC) near Birmingham, where Met Office embedded forecasters now provide specialist weather intelligence that directly influences how the country's motorways and major A-roads are managed. Why weather matters on the road National Highways manages 4,500 miles
. There are some mixed signals from various modelling centres regarding the evolution of ENSO later this year. However, ENSO is most likely to remain neutral through the next three months. More information on typical impacts can be found here: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc
. The latest NOAA Climate Prediction Centre / NCEP statement (PDF) states that: “La Niña is likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition during the spring 2021 (~50% chance of Neutral during April-June).” For the next
the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña event while the likelihood of ENSO remaining neutral is around 40 %. In contrast, output from the Australian Bureau
conditions taking hold in the August to October period (60% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below
% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near-Normal Above Normal Likely Likely Much More
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