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across the Lesser Antilles. (3) Note: Very wet in northwest, else normal * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: October to July Current Status 12 Current Status – British Overseas Territories Current Status: Temperature Current

of the time, allowing only brief settled spells. Temperatures fluctuated either side of average, with some mild spells (especially in southern areas) but also spells with widespread frosts, with the most widespread cold weather coming right at the end of the season. Rainfall has not been far from

eventually happen. Over the course of a whole season, year or decade, however, factors in the global weather system may act to make some outcomes more likely than others. It is because of this we can make a prediction , but we still need to show that a spread of outcomes is possible. To do this, we

in detail beyond about a week ahead, it is possible indicate whether conditions over a season are likely to be wetter, drier, warmer or cooler compared to a long-term average (e.g. warmer than normal). The graphic below shows you can formulate statements of above and below normal for a hypothetical month

- January, bringing dry, sunny conditions and a marked drop in temperature. However, January ended the same way it began, with the arrival of the ninth and tenth named storms of the season, Isha and Jocelyn. February was mild and wet, but without the succession of low-pressure systems that dominated

: Cold in the north and Hot in the south. (2) Note: Mixed in the west, Normal in the east. (3) Note: Wet in the north, to Very Dry in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: April to January Current Status 11 Current

but cold far in the northwest (2) Note: Very wet in the south, normal elsewhere (3) Note: Wet in parts of the north, normal* elsewhere * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: December to September Current Status 11 Current

to trigger public health warnings. Here we a seeing a 16-fold increase! 14 Working together on UK Climate Projections Projecting future seasons using the Local (2.2km) The Local (2.2km) ensemble suggests: Summer Summers will drier by 16- 46% and winters will be wetter by 16-42%. Winter Projected

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Updated forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: UPDATED FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office Hadley Centre

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Preliminary forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: PRELIMINARY FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office