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to trigger public health warnings. Here we a seeing a 16-fold increase! 14 Working together on UK Climate Projections Projecting future seasons using the Local (2.2km) The Local (2.2km) ensemble suggests: Summer Summers will drier by 16- 46% and winters will be wetter by 16-42%. Winter Projected

Storm Ali - which is the first storm to be named by the Met Office and Met Éireann this season - will bring very strong winds to Northern Ireland, Scotland, northern England and parts of north Wales tomorrow (Wednesday 19 September 2018). An Amber National Severe Weather Warning is in place

of the wet season. Present-day simulations of the RCM ensemble are more similar to each other than those of the driving GCM ensemble which indicates that their climatologies are influenced significantly by the RCM formulation and less so by their driving GCMs. Consistent with this, the spread and magnitudes

in detail beyond about a week ahead, it is possible indicate whether conditions over a season are likely to be wetter, drier, warmer or cooler compared to a long-term average (e.g. warmer than normal). The graphic below shows you can formulate statements of above and below normal for a hypothetical month

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Preliminary forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: PRELIMINARY FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Updated forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: UPDATED FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office Hadley Centre

-month, but eastern areas were drier. Total rainfall amounts for the season have been unexceptional, mostly within 25% of average. Sunshine has also shown a contrast, being rather more than normal in September, but well below average for most areas during October, then broadly closer to normal

: Cold in the north and Hot in the south. (2) Note: Mixed in the west, Normal in the east. (3) Note: Wet in the north, to Very Dry in the south * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: April to January Current Status 11 Current

, wetter winters and hotter drier summers, which will influence the release of pollen into the atmosphere. Yolanda added: “We’re already seeing an impact on the pollen season as a result of climate change. Some species are having longer seasons, some are starting earlier and some are more severe. We’re

month on average) and the west and central mountainous regions are wetter (up to 250mm per month depending on the season) (figure 2). Most of the country experiences the majority of its rainfall in two main seasons with the long rains from March-May and the short rains in October- 4 November (figure 3