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of the wet season. Present-day simulations of the RCM ensemble are more similar to each other than those of the driving GCM ensemble which indicates that their climatologies are influenced significantly by the RCM formulation and less so by their driving GCMs. Consistent with this, the spread and magnitudes

but cold far in the northwest (2) Note: Very wet in the south, normal elsewhere (3) Note: Wet in parts of the north, normal* elsewhere * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Global: December to September Current Status 11 Current

neither quite as warm nor quite as wet as the previous autumn 2022. The three months of the autumn saw dramatic contrasts in the weather. Settled weather in early September brought many warm, dry, sunny days with a significant late-season heatwave. 30°C was reached on seven consecutive days (a September

to trigger public health warnings. Here we a seeing a 16-fold increase! 14 Working together on UK Climate Projections Projecting future seasons using the Local (2.2km) The Local (2.2km) ensemble suggests: Summer Summers will drier by 16- 46% and winters will be wetter by 16-42%. Winter Projected

in detail beyond about a week ahead, it is possible indicate whether conditions over a season are likely to be wetter, drier, warmer or cooler compared to a long-term average (e.g. warmer than normal). The graphic below shows you can formulate statements of above and below normal for a hypothetical month

of WeatherReady with the Met Office. Pollen and climate change With global temperatures increasing as a result of human-induced climate change, the pollen season in the UK isn’t immune to the effects of a changing climate. Climate models suggest an increasing likelihood of warmer, wetter winters

7.4 Information on early/late season Sahel rains 7.5 Rainfall versus Drought Predictability 8. Summary: Gaps and Potential Opportunities Supported by: Fund Manager: 1. Introduction: Aims and Scope This report is a literature review on the topic of seasonal-decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall

as the major driver of the timing, magnitude, and variability of wet-season rainfall and its extremes to access the impact on the water resources. Here, our focus is to look for models that demonstrate reasonable skills in simulating rainfall patterns over the study region as well as the wider Indian

of the timing, magnitude, and variability of wet-season rainfall and its extremes to access the impact on the water resources. Here, our focus is to look for models that demonstrate reasonable skills in simulating rainfall patterns over the study region as well as the wider Indian subcontinent. We assessed

Forecast of July- August-September 2022 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Preliminary forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2022 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: PRELIMINARY FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office