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Microsoft Word - use and interpretation of worst case scenarios final

”). For sea level rise, the primary scenario is defined by Network Rail to be the RCP4.5 95 th percentile, because UKCP18 does not contain sea level projections for RCP6.0. Transport for London (2021) uses the same guidelines. A review for ORR (Ferranti et al., 2021) concluded that whilst

ukcp-probabilistic-extremes-report-september-2020.pdf

, Brown et al. (2014) estimated a 20-year return level of 35.7°C for summer TXx in London, for 1961-90. Such rare daily events can occur either during short spells of hot weather associated with particular synoptic conditions (e.g. during 2018, McCarthy et al., 2019), or during an extended heatwave

PWSCG annual report 2021/22

of a turbulent spell of wet and windy weather for the UK, which was associated with a powerful jet stream. Two rare red warnings were issued for storm Eunice, with one being the first red warning issued for wind covering south-east England, including London (see Figure 1). Figure 1: The map of UK

Microsoft Word - 2021_02_low_temperatures_v1.docx

, Hertfordshire and -2.4°C at Wych Cross, East Sussex – 8 to 10°C below average for the time of year. Even central London remained below freezing with a daily maximum of -0.1°C at St James’s Park. The maps below show daily minimum temperatures from 9 to 12 February 2021. The coldest night was 11 th /12th

easter-1998-floods---met-office.pdf

Team led by P. Bye. Two volumes: Initial assessment, Final assessment, published London, Easter Floods 1998 Independent Review Team, 1998 - copies available in Met Office Library. Easter 1998 floods, M.W. Horner and P.D. Walsh, Water and Environment Journal, 14, 415-418, 2007. Last updated: 25 October 2012 © Crown Copyright

News

Warm weather for many

into Friday, apart from the fact that we'll start to see that heat build even further, with very high UV levels in some areas. The Greater London area could potentially see temperatures of 31°C, and quite widely temperatures will be in the high 20°Cs across many central and southern areas of England

News

Hot weather comes to a close

Temperatures could reach up to 34°C in London today with southern and central parts experiencing the last of the current hot spell and sunny skies. As a cold front sweeps across the UK overnight into Thursday there will be much more cloud and a fresher feel to the weather. Although notably hot

Quantitative Volcanic Ash (QVA) Forecasts

London VAAC uses the NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) model, driven by 3D time-evolving meteorological fields from the Unified Model (NWP). This incorporates:  Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs): Ash release location, height, amount, ash properties and timing.  Observational

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