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are consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. ENSO-neutral remains most likely early in this period. However, through autumn the likelihood of La Niña developing increases. By late autumn (October-November-December period), NOAA Climate Prediction Centre gives a 50- 60 % chance of a short-lived La Niña

hold in the August to October period (51% likelihood in NOAA forecast). While forecasts looking this far ahead are inherently uncertain, particularly when issued at this time of year, there is a consistent message emerging from many international modelling centres. Much More Likely Below Normal Near

brighter. Patchy rain and drizzle in eastern parts on the 30th became more showery later; in western areas cloud broke up to allow warm sunshine, though enough cloud built up in the south-west during the afternoon for isolated light showers to develop. Wales diary of highlights The first part

but with showers over the far south-west and near eastern coasts. The 5th began frosty in many central and southern counties, brightest in the south-east, but cloudier elsewhere, with patchy light rain mainly in the north-west. The 6th was windy, starting with patchy rain in many places, but a band

record types 2 1. RETURNS, REGISTERS, LOGS AND SUMMARIES — COLLATED DATA 2 1.1 Daily registers 2 1.2 Climatological returns 4 1.3 Lustrum forms 5 1.4 Ship, light vessel and light house logs 6 1.5 Rainfall cards 7 1.6 Ten year rainfall books 8 1.7 Daily weather summaries 9 1.8 Monthly weather

, particularly in more sheltered spots. As the day progresses, cloud will increase from the west-southwest, bringing rain, some of it heavy, to southern regions by dusk. Northern areas will remain breezy, while winds elsewhere are generally light. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be close

on all coloured backgrounds. Size: width 120px, height 109px. Master logo for a light background Copy the following into the HTML on your web page where you would like the link to appear: <a href="http://www.metoffice.gov.uk" target="_blank" title="opens in a new window"></a> Please use Master mono logo

for the weekend Finally on Saturday, some much awaited high pressure moves in from the Atlantic. It’s a cold start though, with the possibility of some frost, especially in the north. Light winds and sunshine will make the day feel rather pleasant for many, even if temperatures don’t read very high, mid

, particularly in more sheltered spots. As the day progresses, cloud will increase from the west-southwest, bringing rain, some of it heavy, to southern regions by dusk. Northern areas will remain breezy, while winds elsewhere are generally light. Temperatures on Wednesday are expected to be close

for driving a LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) van (slide 6) around the virtual map to collect volcanic ash weather observations. It then needs to be driven back, with the weather data, to the Met Office supercomputer. Try to avoid the lava! 1. Tell the students to work through the booklet