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Modelling climate variability

Our research into climate variability and predictability is aimed at improving the skill of the Met Office monthly to decadal forecasts.

Some physical processes that affect the climate system, such as El Niño and the global oceanic circulation, provide potential sources of climate predictability from a month to decades ahead. Our work involves the study of these processes in order to improve their representation in our prediction

Impacts of climate variability

Description of research and applications of the impacts of climate variability on monthly to seasonal timescales.

Predictions and climate model output often refer to large-scale phenomena (e.g. ENSO, NAO) or give information on large-area averages. The variables for which predictions are made are most often meteorological (e.g. temperature, rainfall). Users' needs are typically related to their economic

Regional climate modelling

Developing models and techniques to produce regional climate information for climate change impacts and adaptation assessments.

The primary tool used in this work is the regional climate model, a higher resolution limited area version of a global atmospheric model. It simulates high-resolution climate skilfully through its improved resolution of a regional physiography and atmospheric motions. Work is undertaken to assess

Airfield climate data

This page displays airfield climate statistics for 48 UK airports including occurrences of Low Visibility Procedures, temperature, low cloud base, significant weather, visibility and wind.

from 1990 to 2021 has been used to allow comparison to the most recent climatological reference period (Charting the UK;s changing climate - Met Office). Where this full period is not available, the maximum range is used using data from METARs recorded at each airfield. The number of observations

Seasonal Climate Outlooks

What is the Seasonal Climate Outlook? Following the El Nino event in 2015, the Met Office worked with the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the University of Reading to design a new service which would provide insights into the upcoming season and enable more

UK climate extremes

be higher than the day-time maximum. In either situation this makes a comparison with the daily records invalid. We do not quote highest/lowest maximum/minimum day-time and night-time records separately. The main reason is that manual climate stations only report daily 0900-0900 UTC maximum and minimum

Climate Risk Reports

Climate Risk Reports

Human activities have unequivocally caused global warming, and this is affecting weather and climate extremes in every region of the world, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable (IPCC AR6 SYR A1, A2). Action to adapt and prevent climate change cannot wait. Improved understanding

The future of climate modelling

Climate modelling at the Met Office

As faster supercomputers with more processing power are developed, harnessing this power and speed for the benefit of improving climate projections is the dream of climate scientists. The reality is there will never be enough speed or capability to infinitely improve climate models in all aspects

Climate change scientists

Our climate change scientists

Dr Tim Andrews Tim is a climate scientist working on forcing, feedbacks and heat uptake in the climate system. Dr Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo Alejandro works on developing and assessing the Met Office Hadley Centre's climate models. Dr Rob Chadwick Rob looks at changes in the global water cycle related

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