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Forecast of July- August-September 2021 season rainfall in the Sahel and other regions of tropical North Africa: Updated forecast 1 FORECAST OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 2021 SEASON RAINFALL IN THE SAHEL AND OTHER REGIONS OF TROPICAL NORTH AFRICA: UPDATED FORECAST Andrew Colman Met Office Hadley Centre

elsewhere but cold far in the northwest (2) Note: Very wet in the south, normal elsewhere (3) Note: Wet in parts of the north, normal* elsewhere (4) Note: Warm in the north, cold in the far south, normal elsewhere * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season

influence patterns of rainfall around the world. However, should a negative IOD develop, then wetter than normal conditions become more likely, later in this period, across Australia, along with Malaysia and Indonesia; drier than normal conditions in East Africa for the Short Rains season (October-November

were well characterized, though HadRM3P exaggerated the orographic enhancement along the coastal mountains, Cascade Range, and Sierra Nevada. HadRM3P produced warm/dry northwest, cool/wet southwest U.S. patterns associated with El Niño. However, there were notable differences, including the locations

conditions through the coming three months, this is also true for Yemen. The Caribbean is likely to be wetter than normal. Across South America, wetter than normal conditions are very likely across Columbia, Guyana and Venezuela Tropical Cyclones: The North Atlantic season is now over. 3-Month

Center and the IRI Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/. * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Additional Information: (1) Note: Cold in the far east (10) Note: Very wet in the southwest (2) Note: Cold in the southeast (3) Note: Normal

in the west, hot in the southeast, normal elsewhere (5) Note: Very wet in the west * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). Climate Outlook Africa: January to October Current Status 10 Current Status – Central Africa Current Status: Temperature Current

decrease is about 15%. However, some basins in south and east Asia are projected to see increased flow in all simulations. Flows in the Ganges increase by up to 90% at 1.5°C and by up to 130% at 2°C. Figure 2. Range of projected changes in flow in major river basins at 2°C and 1.5°C global warming

and the IRI Map Room: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/. * Region usually experiences less than 10mm/month rainfall during the month (dry season). (1) Note: Hot in the east and cool or cold in the west (2) Note: Very wet in Cuba, dry for much of the Lesser Antilles, else normal. (3) Note

damaging wind and rain to central and southern parts of the UK. The 2023/2024 storm season was a busy one, culminating in Storm Lilian in August, the first time ‘L’ has been reached in a single storm season since the naming system began in 2015. The end of January saw the first red warning