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Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate change, through understanding and improving the representation of key processes.

This area of research involves the design, building, evaluation and improvement of climate models informed by knowledge of the mechanisms of past, present and future climates. The scientific focus is on gaining understanding and improving the representation of key processes that are critical for climate variability and change on global and regional scales. Related pages Climate change scientists  

August 2018 - A new study suggests climate sensitivity may be larger and more uncertain than previously thought.

, because if the past warming trend is different to what we might expect in the future, then climate sensitivity, estimated from the observed historical record, may not apply to the future. A new study, led by Dr Timothy Andrews of the Met Office Hadley Centre, along with an international team

Our research into climate variability and predictability is aimed at improving the skill of the Met Office monthly to decadal forecasts.

Some physical processes that affect the climate system, such as El Niño and the global oceanic circulation, provide potential sources of climate predictability from a month to decades ahead. Our work involves the study of these processes in order to improve their representation in our prediction

What is the Seasonal Climate Outlook? Following the El Nino event in 2015, the Met Office worked with the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the University of Reading to design a new service which would provide insights into the upcoming season and enable more

A link to view monthly regional climate anomalies

This page displays airfield climate statistics for 48 UK airports including occurrences of Low Visibility Procedures, temperature, low cloud base, significant weather, visibility and wind.

from 1990 to 2021 has been used to allow comparison to the most recent climatological reference period (Charting the UK;s changing climate - Met Office). Where this full period is not available, the maximum range is used using data from METARs recorded at each airfield. The number of observations

be higher than the day-time maximum. In either situation this makes a comparison with the daily records invalid. We do not quote highest/lowest maximum/minimum day-time and night-time records separately. The main reason is that manual climate stations only report daily 0900-0900 UTC maximum

Description of research and applications of the impacts of climate variability on monthly to seasonal timescales.

Predictions and climate model output often refer to large-scale phenomena (e.g. ENSO, NAO) or give information on large-area averages. The variables for which predictions are made are most often meteorological (e.g. temperature, rainfall). Users' needs are typically related to their economic

Our climate change scientists

Dr Tim Andrews Tim is a climate scientist working on forcing, feedbacks and heat uptake in the climate system. Dr Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo Alejandro works on developing and assessing the Met Office Hadley Centre's climate models. Dr Rob Chadwick Rob looks at changes in the global water cycle related

Met Office climate science webinars

In 2023 the Met Office ran a series of climate science webinars following on from a number of events ahead of COP27 in 2022.  Below you will find details of these past events including video recordings and written summaries. Details of upcoming events will be added below including registration