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Our research into climate variability and predictability is aimed at improving the skill of the Met Office monthly to decadal forecasts.
Some physical processes that affect the climate system, such as El Niño and the global oceanic circulation, provide potential sources of climate predictability from a month to decades ahead. Our work involves the study of these processes in order to improve their representation in our prediction
Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate change, through understanding and improving the representation of key processes.
This area of research involves the design, building, evaluation and improvement of climate models informed by knowledge of the mechanisms of past, present and future climates. The scientific focus is on gaining understanding and improving the representation of key processes that are critical for climate variability and change on global and regional scales. Related pages Climate change scientists
Understanding and quantifying the most important feedback processes operating in the climate system.
An important aspect of this work is to use both models and observations to try to establish links between physical processes operating in past, present and future climates. This involves the development and refinement of diagnostics and metrics for assessing model performance, and for isolating
What is the Seasonal Climate Outlook? Following the El Nino event in 2015, the Met Office worked with the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the University of Reading to design a new service which would provide insights into the upcoming season and enable more
Description of research and applications of the impacts of climate variability on monthly to seasonal timescales.
Predictions and climate model output often refer to large-scale phenomena (e.g. ENSO, NAO) or give information on large-area averages. The variables for which predictions are made are most often meteorological (e.g. temperature, rainfall). Users' needs are typically related to their economic
be higher than the day-time maximum. In either situation this makes a comparison with the daily records invalid. We do not quote highest/lowest maximum/minimum day-time and night-time records separately. The main reason is that manual climate stations only report daily 0900-0900 UTC maximum
The Hunger and Climate Vulnerability Index aims to paint a regional picture of how much climate change may affect life across the planet
Experts from the World Food Programme (WFP) have worked closely with our climate scientists to devise a measurement of vulnerability to climate change. Taking its definition from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 'vulnerability' describes the relative degrees of climate stress
Analysing climate change and its impacts in the urban environment.
Urbanisation results in significant modification of local climates, the most apparent expression of this being the urban heat island. The global urban population now exceeds the rural population, and the urban population may exceed six billion by the 2050s. Therefore, society and our urban
Our climate change scientists
Dr Tim Andrews Tim is a climate scientist working on forcing, feedbacks and heat uptake in the climate system. Dr Alejandro Bodas-Salcedo Alejandro works on developing and assessing the Met Office Hadley Centre's climate models. Dr Rob Chadwick Rob looks at changes in the global water cycle related
Developing models and techniques to produce regional climate information for climate change impacts and adaptation assessments.
The primary tool used in this work is the regional climate model, a higher resolution limited area version of a global atmospheric model. It simulates high-resolution climate skilfully through its improved resolution of a regional physiography and atmospheric motions. Work is undertaken to assess
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